War is a failure of diplomacy… This simply means that when problems are not resolved on the negotiating table, they often lead to war. Russia and Ukraine have been burning in the fire of such a war for two and a half years. Amidst the battle cry of this war, Prime Minister Modi has visited both the countries within 46 days. The purpose was clear – to give a message of peace amidst the horrors of war. In such a situation, when President Zelensky says in a press conference that Prime Minister Modi wants more peace than Putin, it becomes necessary to assess its seriousness. India is ready to play the role of peacemaker between the two countries. Ukraine and America themselves have expectations from India that it can play this role well, but China does not seem comfortable with this.
After the announcement of PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine, there was a lot of buzz at the global level. There was a lot of discussion in the country and the world about the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine. Call it a coincidence or something else, but two days before PM Modi’s arrival in Ukraine, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang had gone to Russia, where he met President Putin very warmly.
China’s inclination towards Russia is not hidden from anyone. But despite this, it has been trying to present itself as an impartial country in this war. When many European countries including America imposed economic sanctions on Russia after the attack on Ukraine, China stood firmly in Russia’s camp. President Jinping had clearly told Putin that Russia’s economic help will continue.
After all, what is China’s problem with India?
China is irritated by India’s ever-strengthening global image. Many big countries of the world are looking at India as a potential peacemaker in times of war. China is not liking this. It is uncomfortable with India’s ever-strengthening image at the global level.
China was so irritated by PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine that the state-run newspaper Global Times completely rejected India’s role as a potential peacemaker. The newspaper said that PM Modi has shown eagerness to bridge the gap between the two war-torn countries. But India does not have the capability to do so. This move of the Indian Prime Minister is merely an attempt to show its existence at the global level. India will not be able to play any role in establishing peace between the two countries.
China’s intention is to establish its dominance at the global level. Experts believe that China played an important role in the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal in 2023. China knows that by playing the role of peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine war, its importance can increase at the global level. This success can open many doors for China. This is also a reason why China is uncomfortable from the beginning about India’s possible role in restoring peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Does China want to ride both boats, Russia and Ukraine?
China’s friendship with Russia is well known. But despite this, it has been increasing investment in Ukraine’s infrastructure for many years. China has invested in projects in many sectors in Ukraine, from energy to agriculture and transportation. From 2016 to 2021, China’s investment in Ukraine has increased from 50 million dollars to 260 million dollars. In 2019, China emerged as Ukraine’s largest trading partner. Along with this, Ukraine also made an important defense deal with China. In 2017, Ukraine has also joined China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative plan.
In May 2023, China’s special representative Li Hui visited Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia. During this time, a ceasefire plan was also presented between Russia and Ukraine. President Jinping himself has also presented a 12-point peace plan to stop this war. But in this plan, there are only empty talks from respecting the sovereignty of regional boundaries to getting out of the Cold War era mentality, no concrete blueprint has been presented regarding peacemaking.
At the same time, President Zelensky has already sensed China’s intention to ride two boats. This is the reason why he criticized China for helping Russia in the Shang-Rila Dialogue held in Singapore this year. Zelensky had said that China’s intention is only to enhance its global image. After playing an important role in the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal, China’s global ambitions have increased even more.
PM Modi’s Ukraine visit in China’s eyes
On August 23, the eyes of the world were on PM Modi. After reaching Kiev, he hugged President Zelensky, consoled him by placing his hand on his shoulder like an elder brother and also gave a message of peace. But China did not like all this and called this move of India a balancing act between Russia and America. In a way, China has called it a symbolic step.
Retired Indian diplomat Anil Trigunayat says that PM Modi’s visit to Kiev can create an opportunity for dialogue and diplomacy. However, this will not be easy. Efforts for peace will have to be kept.
Political analyst and former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s advisor Harsh Khare had described PM Modi’s Ukraine visit as a strategy to please America. He had said that no concrete results should be expected from this visit of PM Modi. He had gone to Ukraine only with the intention of pleasing the western countries.
According to many reports, this strategic move of PM Modi’s Ukraine visit is being linked to his global image. Experts believe that PM Modi wants to show at the global level that India does not take any step under any kind of external pressure but national interest is paramount for it.
America does not trust China!
China is anxious to play the role of peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine. But due to its proximity to Russia and its excessive ambition, the countries of America and Europe look at China with suspicion. It is not long ago that White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby had publicly said that if China sees itself as a peacemaker in the Russia-Ukraine war, it will not be accepted at all. If this happens, it will mean that Putin will have to give more time to make a new plan according to his convenience. Kirby had said that there is no doubt that China and Russia are against international rules.
Can America take any big step?
On August 23, the last day of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in America, Kamala Harris officially accepted the presidential election candidacy on behalf of the Democratic Party.
But she also gave a big hint from the stage about the future of the Russia-Ukraine war. Harris said that if she wins the presidential election to be held on November 5 and becomes the President, her role will be important in ending this war. America will take effective steps to stop this war that has been going on for two and a half years and will emphasize on restoring peace.
Oil purchases from Russia increased but arms imports decreased
During Modi’s visit to Kiev, President Zelensky had urged India to stop buying oil from Russia to cripple its economy. But the reality is that India is continuously buying oil from Russia at cheap prices for its needs. India has become the largest buyer of oil from Russia, surpassing China. In July, the share of Russian crude oil in India’s total oil imports was 44 percent. There has been a record increase of 2.07 million barrels per day.
But India has tried to reduce its dependence on Russia. According to the report of Stockham International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the import of Russian weapons to India has decreased in recent years. Instead of Russia, India is now buying weapons from America, France and Israel. This step is also a part of India’s strategy, under which India is ending its dependence on any one country and increasing strategic autonomy.
For both the countries, who have been suffering the brunt of war for the past two and a half years, this war is now beyond the meaning of victory or defeat. There is neither any excitement left about winning this war nor is there any worry about the possibility of defeat. This war has now become a question of self-respect.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)