Last Updated on 03/09/2024 by Arun jain
Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia has had some tangible consequences for Kiev, one of which is that it has forced Moscow to redirect some forces into the conflict-ridden Kursk region and expose weaknesses in its defenses.
But in a month, the attack So far it has not produced some of the more immediate results that Ukraine had hoped for, such as easing pressure on frontline areas where Russian forces are advancing.
In Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in eastern Ukraine, the situation looks particularly dire for Kyiv. Russia’s best soldiers are fighting a grinding battle for the city and have made significant progress in recent days. Western intelligence.
Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Sirsky, said last week that the Kursk offensive was aimed at Redirect Russian forces Away from the Pokrovsk direction. While Moscow has redeployed about 30,000 troops to Kursk, these forces are mainly coming from other areas of the front line, he said.
“The enemy is trying to withdraw units from other directions, and on the contrary, it is increasing its efforts in the Pokrovsk fields,” said the top general of Ukraine.
Business Insider could not independently verify Sirsky’s figure, but US officials have previously confirmed the movement of Russian troops to Kursk from other areas of Ukraine.
Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think tank said Russia may have initially sent limited forces aimed at reinforcing the Pokrovsk advance towards Kursk. However, these forces did not appear to be engaged in front-line operations, and Moscow instead redeployed troops primarily from lower-priority areas of the front line.
ISW analysts wrote on Saturday that “the Russian military command remains extremely averse to potentially withdrawing combat effective units from frontline areas” in places like Pokrovsk and Torsk, a nearby city under similar pressure. assessment.
“The redeployed units were likely reserve units that the Russian military command intended to use to strengthen the Russian bloc in this direction and prevent the risk of a pre-mature operational climax,” they added.
A former Ukrainian military officer who goes by the social media handle Tatarigami said Ukraine would normally move forces from quiet areas of the front line to stabilize in more critical areas. But the Kursk Offensive limited the number of troops available for reinforcements.
“Does this mean the loss of Pokrovsk is imminent? No, but the balance of forces is increasing the probability,” Tatarigami wrote in it Thread on X last week, adding that “despite Ukrainian efforts to remove Russian forces with the Kursk offensive, the Russian leadership remains reluctant to redeploy significant forces from Pokrovsk.”
Kursk still binds Putin
Although the shocking Kursk Offensive has so far failed to slow the Russian advance around Pokrovsk, it has still produced some significant and positive results for Ukraine in less than a month.
Controls around Ukraine 1,290 square kilometersOr about 500 square miles, Russian territory in Kursk and about 100 settlements within that area, according to Sirsky. This is the largest attack on Russian soil by a foreign enemy since World War II.
“We continue to replenish the exchange fund for Ukraine and push the war into Russian territory,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said over the weekend, repeating a line he has now said several times.
George Barros, geospatial-intelligence team lead and Russia analyst at ISW, said the Kursk offensive showed how Moscow left much of its international border unprotected. This leaves the Kremlin in a quandary: does it continue to do this and risk further Ukrainian attacks, or does it move its forces to protect its borders?
“If the Kremlin goes along with the latter, it will drastically increase the resourcing requirements for Vladimir Putin to support and run this protracted war of his uncertain times,” Barros told Business Insider, highlighting the challenges for the Russian president.
“It’s not a trivial need,” he said.
This warring power would either take away Russia’s operations in Ukraine, resources there, or Russian society, as Moscow is forced to rely on conscription or building local forces.
Russia appears to be seeking additional volunteer forces already in Kursk, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence, which said in a statement. Secret information update Potential recruits for the effort were told last week that they would only serve in that particular region on short-term contracts.
Even if the Kursk offensive did not force Russia to redirect front-line forces from Pokrovsk, that campaign would eventually culminate. When that happens, Barros said, Moscow will focus its forces in other areas as it shifts its focus to another area of the front line. At that point, manpower shifts may come into play.
“The Kursk operation and the redeployment of those 30,000 troops undermines the Russians’ ability to plan for that contingency in the future,” Barros said.
But the Kursk offensive is also challenging the narrative that the war is a stalemate and that the situation for Ukrainians cannot improve, Barros said. The realization could prove important as the US presidential election – in which future military support for Kiev hangs in the balance – approaches.
Additionally, Russia’s unexpected aggression is a reminder to policymakers that the U.S. plays an important role in warfare and can influence the outcome when it comes to decisions about the rules of engagement, Barros said.
Such considerations are a top concern for Ukrainian officials, who have long pressed the US to lift all restrictions on using American-supplied weapons to strike military targets inside Russia. These are attempts Intense from the start Kursk Offensive.
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