After entering a state of misery in 2024, Ukraine has racked up a series of notable achievements since the start of the year, giving new impetus to its fight against Russia.
After struggling with ammunition shortages, the U.S. approved the urgent need in February A $60 billion military aid package After months of political wrangling for Ukraine and Republican blockade.
Western allies have let it use some of the missile systems it has provided to hit targets inside Russia, with significant caveats, giving it a better chance of defending itself against incoming Russian attacks.
And that too got back Initiative, albeit slowly, with his surprise invasion of the Russian region of Kursk in August losing ground in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine remains locked in a ground battle with a Russian military that is absorbing heavy losses and continues to advance with eyes on a grinding victory. The biggest danger is that this push could collapse part of Ukraine’s defenses in the east.
“What Ukraine has done in the past month, starting with Kursk, is not going to turn into a war by any means,” Abishur Prakash, founder of The Geopolitical Business, Inc., a strategy consulting firm in Toronto, told BI.
“But it has certainly changed the war,” he added.
F-16s and long-awaited weapons are getting
Delays in obtaining Western equipment have long been a source of frustration for Ukraine.
In May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the West always provides weapons a year after they are needed.
“Every decision that we, later all come together for, is about a year late,” Zelensky said. Reuters.
But some long-awaited Western weapons have begun to arrive.
These include US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems or ATACMSIn April, and F-16 fighter jet last month
According to Mark Temnicki, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, the F-16s would not give Ukraine immediate air superiority in the conflict — something neither side has been able to accomplish — but they would boost Ukraine’s ability to shoot down missiles and drones. the sky
“Apart from the military capabilities of these planes, the arrival of these jets will provide a boost to Ukrainian soldiers and civilians,” he said.
But it’s not all good news for Ukraine: Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, said Some important military equipment recently pledged to Ukraine will not arrive until 2027.
Strike inside Russia
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the U.S. Allies, including the U.S., barred Ukraine from using advanced weapons it supplies to attack targets inside Russia, such as air bases and resupply lines critical to its offensive.
said a Ukrainian commander operating in the Kharkiv region near the Russian border The Times of London In May his unit saw Russia deploy a large force but had to wait until troops crossed the border into Ukraine.
The Western Allies picked up some Restrictions In May, Ukraine allowed attacks on Russian troops stationed on its borders.
But Ukraine is still not allowed to use Western weapons to carry out Deep strokes Within Russia, though applications of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Ukraine now has 245 military targets in Russia within range of the ATACMS missiles. Map It was released last month by the Critical Threats Project of the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute.
Taking the war within Russia
The biggest change this year is that Ukraine suddenly attacked Russia’s Kursk region, changing the dynamics of the conflict.
Onslaught – The First foreign military operation On Russian soil since World War II – catching Russia and the West off guard.
In just two weeks, August 6, starting in Ukraine Claims Its forces occupied more territory in Kursk than in Russia by early 2024.
Russia, meanwhile, has struggled to respond quickly and effectively, in part because of that Complex military structureslack of contingency plans, And Poor command and control.
According to Mark Kancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and defense strategy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, what Ukraine has done shows it may turn to the offensive.
This is important “after eight months on the defensive and after last year’s failed counterattack,” he told BI.
However, “Ukraine is still in a precarious military situation,” he said.
Creating a winning strategy
According to one Update From the Institute for the Study of War, the Kursk offensive failed to change Putin’s strategic thinking.
Putin still believes Russia can slowly and indefinitely occupy Ukraine through grinding advances and achieve its objectives by fighting a war of attrition and alienating Western support, he said. Ukraine’s emphasis on recovering territory and reluctance to mobilize more troops could complicate its defenses.
Ukraine, meanwhile, hopes its offensive will help it achieve victory.
Meanwhile, A Press conference In Kiev last month, Zelensky said Kursk was the first step in a four-part plan for victory, which he will present to President Joe Biden this month.
Other measures include Ukraine’s strategic position in the world’s security infrastructure and a powerful package of diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia to end the war. CNN.
Focuses on Ukrainian officials They retain the territory they hold and pose more threats, which can affect the course of the war or negotiations for its end. However, it is increasingly possible that the battle for Kursk will fail to replace the difficult battle for Donbas.
Ukraine “is losing ground and may face a breakthrough,” Benjamin Friedman, policy director at the Defense Priorities think tank, told BI.
“They need the most manpower,” he added.
Michael Kaufman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Rob Lee, a senior policy fellow, wrote that the Kursk offensive “shifted the previously gloomy narrative, at least momentarily, about the negative course of war.” Institute for Foreign Policy Research, in foreign affairs last week.
But they added: “But Kiev must decide what to do with its early victory.”
“Kyiv will have to choose between holding on to what it has or investing more scarce resources in operations in an attempt to force a much larger Russian effort to counter it,” they wrote.
However, this comes with risks, they said.
In a worst-case scenario, this could mean losing a significant swath of land to its east and not keeping territory in Kursk that could be used as leverage in peace negotiations.
Ultimately, Ukraine will have to make some big decisions about its available resources.
Prakash, founder of The Geopolitical Business, Inc., pointedly asked what the next steps are for Kyiv, “because what if Ukrainian forces are pushed back in Kursk, and what if Russia starts a big push into eastern Ukraine? ?”
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