of the UK Israel’s decision to suspend up to 30 arms licenses Its consequences are difficult to predict.
In the extreme, it could endanger the lives of British citizens and soldiers as well as make it more difficult to supply US weapons to Israel.
“This [suspension] An unhelpful step, which could come back and bite the UK in some future conflict that cannot be predicted at the moment,” Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general and defense strategist and fellow at the Washington Institute, told The Telegraph.
“History is famous for its unforgiving sense of humor … it’s a decision you may live to regret,” he said.
For British special forces and others who operate on the ground in Syria and other Middle Eastern hotspots, these are not words to be taken lightly.
Much of the human intelligence that keeps them safe is provided by Israel, as are the many “eyes in the sky” that operate overhead.
It covers spare parts for drones as well as helicopters and ground-level targeting equipment. A partial ban was announced by David LammyForeign Secretary, on Monday.
Israeli intelligence is also vital to combating Islamic terrorist threats in the UK and Europe – threats that remain “significant” on the current count (the midpoint on a five-point scale administered by the UK’s Joint Terrorism Analysis Center and MI5).
Israeli intelligence has contributed to the series Anti-terrorist arrests were made in Germany and Denmark in DecemberFor example.
‘You only encourage Hamas’
It may have also played a part in thwarting the IS movement Plot to attack Taylor Swift concert in Vienna In August.
“They planned to kill a large number of people at this concert, in the thousands,” David Cohen, CIA deputy director, said last week.
“The Austrians were able to make that arrest because our partners in the agency and the intelligence community provided them with information about what this IS-linked group was planning to do.”
No one is suggesting that Israel will now deliberately withhold such information but intelligence is by its very nature a cooperative and pragmatic business that works most effectively when trust is high and relationships are good.
“Instead of standing with Israel, a fellow democracy, defending itself against barbarism, Britain’s misguided decision will only be emboldened. Hamas,” raged Benjamin NetanyahuPrime Minister of Israel, following the UK’s announcement on Tuesday.
The UK’s decision on arms will also affect its ability to maintain a presumption that it does not breach the US State Department and its own arms export laws.
The UK – and like many other democracies – the US. have laws that prevent arms exports where there is a potential risk they will be used to violate international law and commit crimes against humanity.
Its national security memorandum, known as “NMS-20,” demands that receiving states provide “credible and credible” written assurances that US weapons will not be misused.
International lawyers say the State Department’s legal assurances on this have always been flimsy and open to challenge but they were pressured by the UK’s silence on the matter under the previous government.
The UK and its courts still retain a powerful reputation for upholding the rule of law internationally.
‘They assured us they wouldn’t do it’
Washington now seems frustrated. “They assured us they would not do this,” an administration source was quoted as saying by ITV on Monday.
Less clear is what can be done to mitigate the harm of prohibition.
Some suggest Mr Lammy’s action was politically motivated (and certainly won’t hurt him or the Prime Minister at the Labor Party conference this month) but it is unlikely any UK government could have held off changing the law much longer.
Judgment earlier this year on Israel’s conduct in Gaza by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and both International Court of Justice Months ago set the clock ticking on continued UK and US arms exports – and that pressure is not letting up.
As suggested in a 17-page legal letter sent to ministers in April by 600 of the country’s top lawyers, including Lord Sumption, a former Supreme Court judge, British politicians and officials could face the dock in The Hague unless the weapons are prosecuted. Exports were taken.
“Serious action is needed … to avoid UK complicity in serious violations of international law, including potential violations of the Genocide Convention,” the lawyers said.
The US, they might have added, is less of a risk because it does not recognize the ICC.
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