Chances of former President Donald Trump won the 2024 election According to polling guru Nate Silver, the surge has come in the last month as Vice President Kamala Harris has struggled to find “another gear.”
The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed Wednesday that his presidential race model now suggests Trump has a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College in November, compared to Harris’ 41.6% chance.
“Trump’s chances of winning are highest since July 30,” Silver wrote in it Latest Election Forecast Bulletin. “And the chance of an Electoral College-popular vote split working against Harris has dropped to about 18 percent.”
Silver model predicts that Harris has a 58.9% chance of winning the national popular vote — which has no bearing on the winner of the race — but that Trump will receive 274 Electoral College votes, topping the vice president’s projected total of 263 Electoral College votes.
Two hundred and seventy Electoral College votes are needed to win the presidency.
Silver Noted on X.
The pollster also argued that Harris’ taping of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as his running mate over swing state Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shaprio, as well as keeping most of President Biden’s campaign team in place, may have been a mistake.
“The convention speech was good, but Shapiro started looking bad by bypassing him and he really hasn’t got 2nd gear since Hot Brat Summer,” he continued.
In a separate tweet, Silver said, “I think I’d buy the bull case for Harris a little more if she hadn’t rehired so many of Biden’s people.”
Overall Silver’s model still pegs the race as a “toss-up” between two candidates.
His analysis follows an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Labor Day that featured Harris Failed to get the expected bump in support Following last month’s Democratic National Convention, the 2024 horse race is essentially unchanged.
Trump and Harris are also virtually tied in two battleground states that could decide the election, together CNN/SSRS Survey A poll released Wednesday showed Trump and Harris each at 47% in Pennsylvania and the vice president at 48%-47% in Georgia.
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