To be or not to be Bengal is the question! Mamata or Modi! Who benefits if President’s rule is imposed?

Enough is enough. I am saddened by the crimes against women, I am disappointed and horrified by this incident– Draupadi Murmu, President.
Protests are being held in Kolkata over the rape and murder of a female doctor. The President made a statement about women.

There is no democracy in Bengal. Mamata Banerjee’s government has not lived up to the expectations of the people. She has not fulfilled her responsibility. I am worried about the people of Bengal. This government is protecting criminals. The government has completely failed to provide security to the people. Saving people’s lives is a priority. No one is safe in Bengal. The police should provide security to the people but it has failed to do so. The criminals have full protection of the police. The Police Commissioner should also be removed immediately. Mamata should resign from her post.- CV Anand Bose, Governor of Bengal.

Bengal Governor CV Anand Bose came to Delhi and met President Draupadi Murmu, Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar and Home Minister Amit Shah.

After these statements came the statement of Bengal CM Mamata…

‘If Bengal is set on fire, then Assam, Northeast, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Delhi will also be affected. Modi Babu is using his party to set fire here. We will topple your chair.’

There was a huge uproar over Mamata’s statement. BJP Chief Ministers made a barrage of statements against Mamata. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma said- Didi, how dare you threaten Assam? Don’t show us red eyes. Don’t even try to burn India with your politics of failure. It does not befit you to speak divisive language.

Senior BJP leader and former Jharkhand CM Babulal Marandi said, ‘Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is threatening to spread anarchy in Jharkhand and other states, which is extremely condemnable and unfortunate. Mamata Banerjee is speaking in the same separatist language as was predicted by the intelligence agencies. Recommend President’s rule’

This sharpness of the statements has led to a discussion on whether President’s rule can be imposed in West Bengal? Is it so easy for the Modi government to impose President’s rule? If the President’s rule thing comes true, will Mamata be benefited? Will the BJP be benefited or at a loss? Let us unravel the threads of the whole matter from one end. First of all, let us know under what circumstances President’s rule can be imposed in any state?

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If there is chaos, unrest or administrative disorder then President’s rule will be imposed

According to the circumstances given in the Constitution for President’s rule, provision for President’s rule has been made in Articles 355 and 356. 355 gives the central government the power to protect the states from external aggression and internal unrest. While 356 provides that if the state fails to run the administration smoothly, then President’s rule can be imposed there. For this, the recommendation of the Governor is very important. In many cases, if the central government directly feels that the constitutional system of the state has failed, then it can itself recommend President’s rule.

Initially, President’s rule can be imposed in a state for a maximum of 6 months. The approval of both the houses is necessary on the recommendation of President’s rule. There is even a provision that if the Lok Sabha is not in existence, then it should be passed by the Rajya Sabha. Later, as soon as the Lok Sabha is formed, it should be passed from there within a month. The maximum period of President’s rule is also fixed. President’s rule can be imposed in any state for a maximum of three years.

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It has been imposed 9 times during Modi government and 90 times during Congress government.

The Modi government has recommended President’s rule 9 times so far. The states in which this rule has been implemented include Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Maharashtra, Arunachal Pradesh. During Congress rule, elected governments have been removed and President’s rule has been imposed more than 90 times. If we talk about former PM Indira Gandhi, she has used this provision the most i.e. 50 times.

After understanding the nuances of President’s rule, let us come to the main point.

Mamata or Modi? Who will benefit from President’s rule in Bengal?

1. Mamata can play the victim card: This decision can strengthen Mamata Banerjee’s position. She will claim herself to be a victim of central intervention. She will garner support by playing this card for any possible election. She will polarize the minority section one-sidedly by showing fear of the Modi government. She will make every effort to capitalize on her martyrdom. The Modi government will not want to take the risk of creating another martyr in Bengal.
2. Mamta’s popularity will increase: It is being seen continuously that Mamata Banerjee remains a popular leader in West Bengal. No other leader can be seen as a competitor to her. Imposing President’s rule can be seen as an attack on her government. This can definitely increase her popularity. At the rate at which BJP’s vote percentage is decreasing in Bengal, BJP would not want to take the risk of increasing TMC’s vote bank.
3. Allies and opposition can protest: On imposing President’s rule, Modi government may have to face the biggest opposition from its allies. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar have anyway been against the Centre’s interference in the states. Apart from this, other allies may also take a different stance. On the other hand, there may be a negative reaction from the opposition parties and people. This may create more problems than solutions. Since the government does not have an absolute majority right now, this situation may make the matter more complicated. The way Modi government is taking cautious steps, it may want to avoid taking this step for now.
4. Legal and Constitutional Problems: The Supreme Court, while giving its verdict in the case of former Karnataka CM Bommai, had considered the President’s rule reviewable. A bench of 9 judges had ruled that if the declaration of President’s rule is challenged, then the central government will have to prove that it had sufficient grounds for this decision. However, the Modi government has already been embarrassed in the matter of President’s rule when the court had revoked the President’s rule in Arunachal and Uttarakhand. If the court overturns this case too, then the government will be embarrassed. The government, which has taken a U-turn in some previous cases, will definitely want to avoid taking any such decision.
5. The constitutional machinery must fail: To impose President’s rule, it is necessary to fulfill constitutional criteria. Such as failure of constitutional machinery or poor law and order situation. The Governor of Bengal has definitely given a statement against the Mamata government but has not sent any recommendation related to President’s rule to the Center in which the seriousness of the situation in the state has been mentioned. If any direct action is taken, then justifying it will be a tough task. The government does not seem to be in a position to take such extreme action right now.
6. Who will take responsibility for the chaos? At this time, there is a huge outrage against Mamata in Bengal. People are agitated. They have come out on the streets. They consider the government to be a total failure on the law and order front. They believe that the government is proving unsuccessful in providing security to women. BJP can take advantage of this situation in its favor and can push Mamata government on the back foot. The party is constantly trying this. Through marches and rallies, it is engaged in proving Mamata government to be a failed government. In such a situation, if the government is removed and President’s rule is imposed there, then the direct responsibility will fall on the Modi government. Certainly, any government would want to avoid this situation.

Should I do it or not….or what should I do?

So what will happen in the dilemma? Shakespeare’s famous line is very apt for the current condition of Bengal.. To be or not to be Bengal is the question! However, Bengal will not remain a question for long. The circumstances that are developing make it seem that the answer to this question can be found soon.