Assembly elections are going to be held in Jammu and Kashmir. Meanwhile, Aaj Tak has done a Mood of the Nation Survey in collaboration with C-Voter. A sample size of 1 lakh 36 thousand 463 has been taken in this survey. This survey was conducted between 15 July and 10 August. What is the public opinion in Jammu and Kashmir? 5 major factors have also emerged in the survey. People in Jammu and Kashmir no longer talk about terrorism, but want development and are very excited to join the mainstream. The situation here has completely changed in the last 5 years. After the removal of Article 370, the political atmosphere of Kashmir is also changing.
Unemployment dominates the biggest issues in this union territory. Here 47 percent people have described unemployment as a big problem. After that 17 percent people have said that they are troubled by inflation. 11 percent want development work. 4 percent believed that there is corruption in the government machinery of the state. One percent people each have listed law and order and farmers’ issues as problems. That is, these five big factors will influence the entire assembly elections and are expected to dominate the political atmosphere.
Can the mathematics of Jammu and Kashmir change?
Recently, Lok Sabha elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir. There are a total of 5 Lok Sabha seats here. BJP and National Conference have won 2 seats each. Awami Ittehad Party chief Rashid Engineer won one seat in Baramulla. He defeated Omar Abdullah. According to the MOTN survey, if elections were held today, BJP-National Conference could repeat their previous performance. However, Rashid Engineer may suffer a setback and this seat may go to PDP. Congress does not seem to have any hope of success again.
Who has lead in how many assembly constituencies?
If we look at the performance based on the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP has taken the lead in 29 assembly constituencies. National Conference has taken the lead in 34 assembly constituencies and Congress in 7 assembly constituencies. PDP has taken the lead in 5 assembly constituencies, Engineer Rashid in 14 assembly constituencies and Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference has taken the lead in 1 assembly seat.
Who are those five big leaders who can change the mathematics
In Jammu and Kashmir, Rashid Engineer’s Awami Ittehad Party, Mohammad Altaf Bukhari’s Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP), Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party, Sajjad Gani Lone’s People’s Conference and Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP can prove to be game changers in the assembly elections. Apart from this, National Conference also has a significant influence in the politics here. The three major national parties BJP, Congress and BSP are also active in the state. This time, National Conference and Congress have formed an alliance in the elections.
This time, the National Conference and Congress are preparing to contest the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections strongly. This alliance can be seen directly fighting with BJP and PDP. Other regional parties including PDP are also making efforts and have the ability to change the electoral equation. Regional parties are being seen as game changers. There are a total of 90 seats in the state. Regional parties are influential in different divisions. The performance of regional parties will decide their role in the new government.
– Rashid Engineer (Sheikh Abdul Rashid): Rashid Engineer, also known as Engineer Rashid, has a strong base in Kupwara district of Kashmir Valley. The Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) led by him has won as an independent candidate in the past and his support is based on regional issues. Rashid Engineer gets the support of youth and non-traditional voters, who are considered disappointed with mainstream parties.
– Altaf Bukhari: Altaf Bukhari has recently formed a party named ‘Jammu and Kashmir Apna Dal’ (JKAP). Bukhari has administrative experience and has also worked with PDP earlier. Bukhari’s party has a centrist approach, which can help him attract voters not only in the Kashmir Valley but also in the Jammu region. His party focuses on the issues of economic development, employment and peace.
– Ghulam Nabi Azad: Ghulam Nabi Azad is an experienced leader. He has been a senior Congress leader. He has recently formed his own party ‘Democratic Azad Party’ (DAP). Azad’s political experience and his reputation make him a strong candidate. Azad’s party’s vision is secular and inclusive, which can get him the support of voters in both Jammu and Kashmir regions. He also has a strong base in the Jammu region, due to which he can influence the electoral equation.
Are regional issues under discussion?
Restoration of Article 370: Many leaders in Jammu and Kashmir have been putting forward their views on the restoration of Article 370 and the special status of the state, which can be an important election issue in the Kashmir Valley. The state leaders are emphasizing on the issues of economic development, peace and stability and this can become an important option for them. Especially for those voters who are disappointed with the mainstream parties.
Polarization of Voters: The parties of these leaders can divide voters from mainstream parties, which can change the electoral mathematics and equations. If these parties form an alliance with other regional parties, they can play an even bigger role in the elections.
Know what influence which party-leader has?
Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah: Farooq is the head of the National Conference and his son Omar Abdullah is the vice-president of the party. Both leaders have strong support in the Kashmir Valley. Their role and stance after the removal of Article 370 can determine their acceptance among the Kashmiri people and their influence in future politics.
Mehbooba Mufti (People’s Democratic Party): Mehbooba’s party PDP is influential in the southern parts of the valley. The PDP’s aggression on the issue of Article 370 and rhetoric against the central government brings them closer to Kashmiri separatist ideology, which keeps their support base intact.
Sajjad Lone (People’s Conference): Sajjad Lone is an influential leader in the north of Kashmir and his party People’s Conference has a good hold in some important areas. He is emerging as an alternative against the traditional political parties and his role can be important in the next elections.
Expansion of BJP and Hindu vote bank
BJP is strong in Jammu region and gets strong support from Hindu voters of this region. After the removal of Article 370, BJP has also tried to establish its hold in Kashmir Valley. BJP’s performance in the elections can change the electoral equation of Jammu and Kashmir. After delimitation, the addition of six more seats in Jammu division has increased its political importance. The total number of seats in Jammu has become 43. Earlier there were 37 seats in this region. Similarly, earlier there were 46 seats in Kashmir division, which has now increased to 47. BJP is taking credit for this adjustment.
The BJP, which has won 29 assembly constituencies in Jammu in the recently held Lok Sabha elections, is aiming to increase its numbers in the upcoming assembly elections. The BJP’s focus is especially on the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch. The recent grant of Scheduled Tribe status to the Pahari community here and the recent induction of Gujjar leader Choudhary Zulfkar Ali into the party are expected to boost the party’s prospects. The BJP’s target is to win at least five of the eight assembly seats in these districts.
What does Congress expect?
Jammu was once a stronghold of the Congress party, but since 2014, the Congress has lost ground, especially in Hindu-dominated areas. In the 2014 assembly elections, the Congress won 12 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. But none of the Hindu candidates of the Congress won in the Hindu-dominated seats of Jammu. However, the recent Lok Sabha elections have given new hopes to the Congress. The party has gained a lead in seven assembly constituencies, two of which are Hindu-dominated, and is far behind the BJP in two other Hindu-dominated seats. This has given the party confidence that it can limit the BJP to less than 20 seats in Jammu.
Of the 43 assembly seats in Jammu, 34 are either Hindu-dominated or have a decisive Hindu vote. The BJP aims to win all these 34 seats and some Muslim-dominated seats in Rajouri and Poonch, taking the total to 40 seats in the Jammu division. However, the BJP will face a tough challenge from the Congress, which is hoping to win many of these Hindu-dominated seats.
How much has the political atmosphere of Kashmir changed?
After the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, Jammu and Kashmir lost its special status and was made a Union Territory. This decision has completely changed the political environment. People want clarity on their position from various political parties and this can play an important role in the upcoming elections.
After the removal of Article 370, mainstream parties like the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Conference (NC) have lost their political influence to a great extent. These parties adopted the path of protests and boycott of elections, which has led to a decline in their popularity. The National Conference and the PDP are struggling to strengthen their base. At the same time, new parties and leaders are emerging, who are looking for their role in the changing political equations. Like Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party (JKAP) and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Azad Party (DAP). These new parties have tried to get public support by focusing on the issues of development and peace.
At the same time, BJP has tried to expand its political scope in Jammu and Kashmir after the removal of Article 370. BJP leaders are counting their move to reorganize the state and make it a union territory as a major achievement, especially in the Jammu region. BJP also performed well in the Panchayat elections in Jammu and Kashmir, which has strengthened its political base. BJP’s popularity has increased among Hindu voters, who are looking at the reorganization of the state positively. BJP’s election campaign has been prepared keeping in mind the Hindu voters in the Jammu region. Whereas their presence in the Kashmir Valley is relatively less.
The security situation has also seen a change since the removal of Article 370. Although terrorist activities have not completely decreased, the presence of the army and security forces has been increased. Along with this, discontent and protests have also been seen among the people in the Kashmir Valley. However, these have decreased over time.
The government has taken several steps to promote development projects in Jammu and Kashmir after the removal of Article 370. Policies are being made to encourage investment and increase employment opportunities. However, challenges still remain in terms of economic development and there is scope for improvement in sectors like trade and tourism. Religious and social polarization has also increased in Jammu and Kashmir since the removal of Article 370. Socially, polarization has increased in the state on issues like citizenship, land ownership and government jobs. People in the Kashmir Valley see this decision as an attack on their autonomy and identity. Whereas in the Jammu region it has received support from the point of view of development and equality.
Elections in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years
Assembly elections are going to be held in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years. The last elections were held in 2014 and the PDP-BJP formed a coalition government. After that, in 2019, the Center abolished Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and the special privileges were abolished. With this, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh were made two union territories. The political history of the state shows that regional parties have dominated here.
When did Congress form the government?
Among the national parties, Congress has been the only party that has formed the government in Jammu and Kashmir thrice. In 1964, Ghulam Mohammad Sadiq became the first CM in the Congress government for one year. His second term lasted more than 6 years. After that, in 2005, Ghulam Nabi Azad became the CM in the Congress government. He remained the Chief Minister for more than two years. But today the situation is completely different. Senior leaders like Ghulam Nabi Azad have distanced themselves from the party. There is a lack of old and experienced faces in the organization.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)