The story of America’s ‘unfortunate Mars’ whose mere sound terrifies the world even after 95 years!

there is a saying…

When America sneezes, everywhere catches a cold. That is, when America sneezes, everywhere catches a cold…

This Friday, there was a sharp fall in the Indian stock market, investors lost Rs 5 lakh crore in one go, it was said that the US job data is indicating a recession and its effect is visible on the Indian stock market, before this, last month i.e. in the first week of August, when the figures of increased unemployment rate came in America, the whole world was shocked. There was a stir in the American stock market, that phase of decline reached the Indian markets via America-Japan-Korea. It was said that the world’s strongest economy is heading towards recession. All the stock markets of the world including India started crashing. People started selling shares in a hurry and lakhs of crores of rupees of investors were lost in one or two sessions.

In this environment, people started fearing the Great Depression of 1929. They remembered that Black Tuesday, which caused havoc in the whole world. We will tell you what exactly happened on that Tuesday 95 years ago, the mere sound of which created a stir, about which even today the leading businessmen and economic analysts of the world keep warning about the stock market.

The feel good before the bad taste…

If most of us are asked where in the world we can go to live a life of fun, luxury and prosperity, then the American Dream will immediately flash in everyone’s mind. This story of the wealth of America i.e. Uncle Sam of the world is not new.

About a century ago, in the autumn of 1928, the future President of America, Herbert Hoover, declared, “Today we are very close to the final victory over poverty for the first time in the history of America.” Most American citizens agreed with him. People had never lived a better life than this before. The unemployment rate was only 4 percent, which means that 96 out of every 100 people had a source of income.

Jazz music was in vogue, radios were selling in large numbers, electricity and telephone lines were being laid rapidly. People were living comfortably. Shopping was available on credit, cars had become so cheap that the middle class could easily buy them. Houses and plots were being sold rapidly in cities like Florida. People were travelling a lot. Everyone was eager to invest in shares. Even those who did not have money were taking loans from banks and doubling and tripling their money in the flowing Ganga of the share market. Everything was going on in a good way.

Then the Great Depression knocked painfully…

But exactly one year later, financial panic took over. The New York stock market crashed, businesses closed, banks collapsed, millionaires were ruined and ordinary citizens lost their entire life savings. People lost their jobs and homes. In the next few years, one in every four Americans was unemployed. Then this economic crisis spread beyond America to the whole world. This was the biggest tragedy of the modern world, which we know as the Great Depression.

The day of 29 October 1929 is known in history as ‘Black Tuesday’. This was the day when the US stock market crashed and with this a severe recession began in economies around the world. How did that day come?

From Black Thursday to Black Tuesday…

Imagine, it is a bright morning in New York City, USA. People are busy in their offices and work, everything is going on normally. There is a stir in the stock market. Investors, who were already expecting a boom in the market, are now preparing to sell their shares. But everything is going to change very fast.

Actually this bad story started a week ago i.e. on 24 October i.e. Thursday, but then someone noticed it.
It was not known that the depth of this crisis was so much. That day the price of shares kept falling but by afternoon some businessmen took the responsibility of handling it. They bought shares in large numbers and shouted to the market that there is no crisis, don’t be afraid. Prices started rising again and people started breathing a sigh of relief. But this was the calm before the storm. Black Monday knocked again on 28 October. The trend of decline was seen again but the market ignored it too. Then came the morning of 29 October i.e. Tuesday which the world could not forget.

What exactly happened that day?

On this day, about 1.6 crore shares were bought and sold on the New York Stock Exchange, but the sharp fall spoiled all the fun. There was a fall of 11.73% at once. It was such a scene that investors just kept watching their money being lost. Nothing was heard on Wall Street except ‘sell-sell’. Millions of dollars vanished into nothingness.

The market was in shambles. A woman committed suicide by jumping from the 44th floor of a building in Manhattan. Actor Groucho Marx lost everything. In the next two years, two thousand banks went bankrupt and people’s money also became zero with those banks. There was fear everywhere, investors were robbed and the market of rumours was so hot that on seeing a person climbing a tall building to paint, people ran thinking that an investor has climbed up to commit suicide.

Panicked people rushed to the banks to withdraw their money. But they were also locked, the banks themselves were not in a position to return people’s money. Firstly, people who had taken loans and invested in shares were not in a position to return, secondly, the banks themselves had invested people’s money in shares whose value had now become zero.

Those whose savings were lost were already in trouble but those who had taken loans and invested in the stock market were in double trouble, their money was lost but the banks had to repay the loans. Caught in this crisis, in the next 4 years, about 11 thousand banks of America i.e. half of the banks were closed. People started fearing to use even those banks which were not closed.

Industries came to a standstill, banks started going bankrupt. After the market crash, people felt as if they were living in a fantasy world, there were factories but no one was there to buy their products, people started losing their jobs. Farmers’ crops were ready but there was no one to buy them. There was devastation everywhere. People did not have money to eat food. Long queues started forming for bread at centers providing free food. At least 82 thousand meals were being given free of cost in New York City in a day. People became homeless and came on the streets.

What effect did the Great Depression have on the world?

American companies had influence everywhere in the world. When the banks in America collapsed, the banks in Europe also started collapsing one by one. The effect of economic recession was seen all over the world. Industries started shutting down in Europe, Asia and other continents. People’s income decreased. And the unemployment rate reached 33% in many countries. Due to this recession, there was a massive decline of 45% in global industrial production during 1929 to 1932 and for the next decade many countries of the world had to struggle with the crisis of goods supply.

President Hoover opened ‘Hoover Ville’ for the homeless Americans, which became a butt of jokes. Economists wanted the government to take strict measures to handle the situation, but nothing happened. Although 5000 people got employment in the dam construction project, these steps proved insufficient to deal with a big crisis like the Great Depression.

By which measures did the fear end?

On the other hand, New York Governor Roosevelt came up with a model to deal with this situation. He believed that the government should be ready to help every person who needs help, because before losing their jobs, those people have already contributed to the development of the country. He came up with the TERA program, under which it was to be ensured that the unemployed person has enough money to survive, apart from this he made efforts to create employment.

Roosevelt said that he wanted to implement this program in the entire country. He announced to contest the presidential election. He contested the election and America, which was facing recession, elected him as the President. After becoming the President on 4 March 1933, Roosevelt formed a group of advisors named ‘Brain Trust’ which made a new strategy to get America out of the crisis and for development. Prohibition of liquor was abolished so that the government’s income from taxes on it could increase. Under the TERA program, it was decided to use the rotting crops in the fields to feed the people. For the first time, lunch was arranged in schools so that children do not remain hungry and the burden on families is reduced.

Roosevelt’s government took the stock market under government control and made strict rules to monitor trading. Joseph Kennedy was made the chairman of the Stock Exchange Commission. To end the banking crisis, only those banks were allowed to operate whose fundamentals were strong and were in a position to operate in a stable manner. To provide employment to the working class, the CWA program was started under which construction of roads, parks, schools, bridges, and outhouses was done across the country. This provided employment to more than 4 million workers.

Every coin has two sides…

Finally, in 1941, when Japan attacked the American Pearl Harbor base, America had to enter the war. For the war, work started happening rapidly in American factories and a large number of people were also needed on the war front. In this way, with America’s entry into the Second World War, the problems of employment and industries started getting resolved automatically.

[1945मेंजबदूसराविश्वयुद्धखत्महुआतबतकअमेरिकामंदीकीचपेटसेनिकलकरदुनियाकासबसेअमीरमुल्कबनकरउभरचुकाथाआज9दशकबादभीअमेरिकादुनियाकाकारोबारीनेताहैऔरउसकेयहांनीतियोंमेंहोनेवालाहरबदलावदुनियापरअसरडालतारहायहांतककिअमेरिकीफेडरलरिजर्वकेएकनिगेटिवसंकेतसेपूरीदुनियाकेशेयरबाजारहिलजातेहैंऔरएकसकारात्मकसंकेतबड़ाउछाललादेताहै

कब-कब आई दुनिया में आर्थिक मंदी?

#1929 की महामंदी- यह आर्थिक मंदी अमेरिका में शुरू हुई और इसका प्रभाव वैश्विक स्तर पर पड़ा. शेयर बाजार का पतन, बेरोजगारी और औद्योगिक उत्पादन में गिरावट इसके प्रमुख लक्षण थे. यह मंदी 1939 तक चली.

#1973 का तेल संकट- यह मंदी तेल निर्यातक देशों के संगठन ओपेक द्वारा तेल की कीमतों में वृद्धि के कारण हुई. इसके परिणामस्वरूप, कई विकसित देशों में आर्थिक संकट और उच्च मुद्रास्फीति का सामना करना पड़ा.

#2002 की मंदी- अमेरिका में डॉट-कॉम बबल के फूटने और 2001 के 9/11 हमले के बाद आई ये मंदी कई साल तक
दुनिया को परेशान करती रही. इसमें कई देशों की कंपनियां तबाह हो गई. इस दौरान कई देशों में बेरोजगारी बढ़ी और आर्थिक गतिविधियों में गिरावट आई. शेयर बाजार में भी भारी गिरावट देखी गई. नैस्डेक सूचकांक ने 2000 से 2002 तक लगभग 80% का नुकसान उठाया.

#2008 की मंदी- यह मंदी अमेरिका में हाउसिंग सेक्टर के संकट से शुरू हुई और पूरी दुनिया पर इसका असर हुआ. कई देशों के बैंक तबाह हो गए. इस दौरान कई देशों में आर्थिक विकास में गिरावट आई और बेरोजगारी बढ़ी.

#कोरोना लॉकडाउन- 2019 के अंत से शुरू हुई COVID-19 महामारी के कारण लागू लॉकडाउन ने वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था को गंभीर रूप से प्रभावित किया. इस दौरान, वैश्विक जीडीपी में 3% की गिरावट आई, जो पिछले संकटों की तुलना में अधिक थी.

ट्रंप और कमला हैरिस की आर्थिक नीति क्या है?

इस बार साल 2024 के राष्ट्रपति चुनाव में भी डोनाल्ड ट्रंप और कमला हैरिस के बीच आर्थिक नीतियों के अंतर की खूब चर्चा हो रही है. रिपब्लिकन ट्रंप अमेरिकी कंपनियों को प्राथमिकता देने, चीन के साथ व्यापार युद्ध छेड़ने और अमेरिकी तेल और गैस कंपनियों के वैश्विक कारोबार को प्रोत्साहन देने के जहां पक्षधर हैं वहीं डेमोक्रेट कमला हैरिस मध्य वर्ग और श्रमिक वर्ग को प्राथमिकता देने की पक्षधर हैं. कमला हैरिस कारपोरेट दर बढ़ाने और अमीरों पर ज्यादा टैक्स लगाने की भी पक्षधर हैं.

अंकल सैम से फिर खौफ की तरंगें क्यों आ रहीं?

एक तरफ अमेरिका में चुनाव करीब है तो दूसरी ओर मंदी की चर्चा भी चल पड़ी है. अंकल सैम यानी दुनिया की अगुवाई करने वाले अमेरिका में मंदी की चर्चा हाल में आए बेरोजगारी और जीडीपी के आंकड़ों के बाद फिर से हो रही है. हाल में जारी आंकड़ों के अनुसार अमेरिका में बेरोजगारी दर 4.3% पहुंच गई है, जो अक्टूबर 2021 के बाद का सबसे उच्च स्तर है.

यह लगातार तीसरा महीना है जब दुनिया के सबसे अमीर देश अमेरिका में बेरोजगारी दर बढ़ी है. अमेरिका में औसतन हर महीने 2.15 लाख नौकरियां क्रिएट होती हैं उसकी तुलना में सिर्फ 1.14 लाख नौकरियां ही उत्पन्न हुई हैं. दूसरा संकेत अप्रैल-जून 2024 तिमाही में अमेरिकी जीडीपी 2.8% की दर से बढ़ी जो कि निम्न स्तर है. महंगाई दर 6 फीसदी से ऊपर है. इन सब फैक्टर्स को देखते हुए एक्सपर्ट अमेरिकी मंदी की चर्चा करने लगे हैं.

वॉल स्ट्रीट के शेयर बाजार पर इसका सीधा असर दिखा. अगस्त के पहले हफ्ते में इन आंकड़ों के असर से नैस्डेक, एसएंडपी 500 और डाउ जोन्स जैसे सूचकांक में भारी गिरावट देखी गई. उसका असर भारतीय बाजारों पर भी देखा गया. हाल ही में, अमेरिका के एक चर्चित अर्थशास्त्री हैरी डोंट जिनका अनुमान बाजार और अर्थव्यवस्था को लेकर पहले सही भी हो चुका है, ने निवेशकों को चेताते हुए कहा था कि 14 साल से बाजार में एक बुलबुला बन रहा है और अगले साल यानी 2025 में 2008 से भी बड़ी मंदी आ सकती है.