The economy may face a setback in the first quarter, this agency has given its estimate regarding GDP

The growth rate for the April-June quarter will be announced at the end of this month. Before its release, rating agency ICRA has made a big estimate about India’s growth rate. ICRA’s report says that the Indian economy will not be able to perform strongly in the first quarter of 2024-25.

The rating agency has predicted that India’s economic growth will come down to 6 percent in the April-June quarter. Earlier, the economic growth was 7.8 percent in the January-March quarter, while the country’s growth rate was 8.2 percent in April-June 2023. In such a situation, if this estimate proves to be correct, then this will be the lowest level in 6 quarters.

6.8% growth rate in 2024-25!
However, the agency has said that despite the decline in the first quarter, GDP growth will accelerate in the remaining quarters. ICRA estimates that India’s growth rate will be 6.8 percent in 2024-25, which is much lower than 8.2 percent in 2023-24. If we talk about the estimates of different agencies including RBI for 2024-25, then RBI has projected a growth rate of 7.2 percent in the current financial year in its recent policy.

The Finance Ministry estimates that the country’s growth rate this year will be in the range of 6.5 to 7 percent. FICCI and IMF have estimated a growth rate of 7 percent for this year. The World Bank has estimated a growth rate of 6.6 percent, Morgan Stanley 6.8 percent and Deloitte has estimated a growth rate of 7 to 7.2 percent.

Growth rate figures will come on August 30
According to ICRA, the economic growth rate is expected to decline due to the fall in government expenditure in the first quarter and the decrease in urban consumer demand. On August 30, MoSPI will release the official data of the growth rate of the June quarter. According to the RBI’s Consumer Confidence Index, there has been a significant decline in urban consumer confidence.

At the same time, the long-lasting effects of last year’s weak monsoon and the uneven start of the 2024 monsoon have also prevented improvement in rural sentiments. According to economists at ICRA, the heatwave has affected people in different sectors. However, this led to a tremendous increase in power demand and sales of AC-cooler-fridges also set a record this time due to the impact of the scorching heat.