The Bangladeshi movement that started over reservation in jobs ended in a coup. A crowd of protesters reached the PM House in Dhaka and started looting. This is being compared to the political upheaval that took place in Colombo, Sri Lanka two years ago. But this is not the only similarity. In the last three to four years, many of India’s neighboring countries have been seen turning into radical Islamic countries. In a way, India’s situation can become like Israel. This will also affect the alliance of South Asian countries.
At present, the way power changed in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives has increased the fear that most of India’s neighbours will either become radical or have anti-India sentiments.
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India shares its land borders with seven countries- Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, China, Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Maldives and Sri Lanka are countries having water borders. Now, apart from Bhutan, all other countries are on the side of fundamentalism, who seem to be angry with Hindu-dominated India on Kashmir or some other issue. China has no insistence on religion, but India has a border dispute with it.
Direct impact of instability in Dhaka
Talking about Sri Lanka, there is an anti-India atmosphere there after the fall of Sheikh Hasina government. This atmosphere was there earlier also, when there was talk of boycotting Indian products. Actually, the Hasina government had good relations with India. The opposition used to claim that India had influenced the elections to bring the Hasina government back to power. There was also an anti-Hindu atmosphere in Bangladesh, which is now visible openly.
There is also a Chinese angle in this. Recently, there was talk of the Teesta agreement between India and Bangladesh. China was also interested in this. Hasina had visited both the countries one after the other a month ago and discussed this matter. Now Hasina’s visit can be beneficial for China, while it can bring trouble for India.
Maldives’ stance also appears to be anti-India
Ever since Mohammad Muizzu was elected as the President of Maldives, tensions in relations have been increasing. As soon as he came, he started the India Out campaign, under which Indian soldiers were removed from the country. Muizzu remained pro-China. Since the relations between India and China are not that good, the reason for his rift with India is understandable.
According to the US Treasury Department, the city of Addu in Maldives remains a stronghold of Islamic extremists. It supports ISIS-K (in Afghanistan). Recently, the Islamic State is also believed to be involved in the increasing terrorist activities on the Indian borders. All these links form a picture.
Impact of Chinese debt on Colombo
Sri Lanka also faced political instability about two years ago, due to which President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had to flee the country. This country, which is living in misery, is completely in debt to China. In return, China is taking over those ports which are close to India, or from where it is easy to keep an eye on India. This is also a dangerous situation in itself.
Nepal even claimed Lord Rama
The condition of Nepal is even worse. There has been political instability here since the monarchy was abolished in 2008. The PM has changed several times in 16 years. KP Sharma Oli took power only last month. During Oli’s last tenure, the relations between the two countries started deteriorating. Nepal released such maps which included many parts of India.
In 2020, Oli also claimed that India has taken away Lord Ram, while the real Ayodhya is in Nepal. However, later the foreign ministry there also gave clarification on this. This country, which is constantly taking loans from China, also started showing bitterness towards India. All these things can prove to be a challenge.
Extremist rule in Afghanistan
The Taliban came to power in Afghanistan exactly three years ago. This is an Islamic fundamentalist organization, whose presence has not only limited the country but has also affected India. Before his arrival, India and Afghanistan had good relations during the government of Ashraf Ghani. Now the relations between the two countries have almost ended. Most of the countries have not even recognized the Taliban, India is one of them.
Terrorism is increasing from Pakistan
The anti-India atmosphere is continuously increasing in Pakistan, which is facing economic crisis. During the tenure of Imran Khan, relations between the two countries seemed to be improving, but after Khan was ousted from power after the no-confidence motion, Shahbaz Sharif became the PM, since then the situation has remained the same. On this Monday, Youm-e-Istehsal (Oppression) Day was celebrated there. Let us tell you that four years ago on August 5, the special status of Kashmir was removed. Pakistan celebrates Oppression Day in protest against this. These things give a glimpse of Pakistan’s fanaticism and anti-India attitude.
Situation is not good in Myanmar either
The issue of Rohingya refugees has been going on there since 2017, but now a situation of civil war seems to be developing there. Rebel forces have captured most of the northern region of Myanmar. In fact, three years ago, the Myanmar Army overthrew the elected government and captured power. After this, many rebel groups were formed who are against the army, but they also do not want democracy, but to usurp power.
This mutual conflict is leading to displacement. A large number of people are crossing the border and coming to India. So much so that India has had to increase vigilance on its borders with Myanmar. It is even believed that the Kuki and Meitei conflict in Manipur is the result of intruders from Myanmar.
If we compare, this situation is similar to that of Israel. This Jewish country is surrounded by 13 Muslim countries, most of which have been its staunch opponents. Among them are Egypt, Iraq, Algeria, Kuwait, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Sudan and Libya. They have directly attacked Israel many times. Currently, these countries are supporting Hamas in the war between Hamas and Israel.
What will be the impact on SAARC
This instability around India will have an impact on SAARC. SAARC is a group of South Asian countries which has 8 countries – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. In this group formed with the purpose of strengthening South Asia, only India is currently economically and politically stable. Bhutan is a stable but small country. In such a situation, SAARC seems to be an organization formed only for the sake of formality, especially in the current circumstances.
meeting kept getting postponed
Exactly 10 years ago, the last SAARC meeting was held in Kathmandu, while this summit was to be held every two years. The summit was to be held in Islamabad in the year 2022, but after PM Narendra Modi boycotted the conference in anger against the Uri terror attack, all other countries also withdrew their names.
Recently, Bangladesh’s interim PM Mohammad Yunus talked about reviving SAARC but given the constant instability in the neighbouring countries, it seems that SAARC will not be able to emerge as a big group in the coming days. Whereas earlier it has taken many big decisions.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)