Last Updated on 10/09/2024 by Arun jain
It’s that time again. The last act of Congress funding the federal government Expires on 30 September. So, unless Congress passes new funding legislation by then, most of the government will shut down.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), AGED by the House Freedom Caucus and by Former President Donald TrumpIt reportedly wants to use the deadline to push through legislation that would make it harder to register to vote in all 50 states.
Johnson signed a bill funding the government for six months called the “Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act,” orSave Act,” which would require new voters to submit “documentary proof of United States citizenship,” such as a passport or birth certificate, to register to vote.
There is no evidence that non-citizens vote in any meaningful numbers in US federal elections, and states generally have safeguards in place to prevent them from doing so. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, for example, Claims to have identified 1,634 “potential non-citizens”. who attempted to register during a period of 15 years. But these potential non-citizens were caught by election officials and never registered. In 2020, About 5 million Georgians voted In the presidential election.
More broadly, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center, “Illegal registration and voting attempts by non-citizens are routinely investigated and prosecuted by appropriate state authorities, and there are There is no evidence that non-citizens attempt to vote significant enough to affect the outcome of any election.”
While non-citizen voting – which is, of course, illegal – has never been proven to have affected elections, there is evidence that the SAVE Act could have affected elections. That much is clear from Arizona, which already has a regime like the SAVE Act. Data from Arizona suggests that state laws have made it somewhat harder for people of color, a group that skews Democratic, to vote. And at least one analysis of Arizona voter data suggests SAVE may act Suppress voter registration in another group that tends to vote for Democrats: College students. So the bill could make it a little more difficult for Democrats to win elections.
That said, the SAVE Act law contains a vague provision that allows voters who “cannot provide” the required documents to submit other proof of citizenship, and provides that state or local officials “make determinations as to whether an applicant is will have adequately established United States citizenship.
It is not clear what that means.
Significantly, the save act will Will take effect immediately if enacted by CongressAnd it imposes significant new administrative burdens on state and local election offices. So, if the law came into effect within two months of a presidential election, it could potentially throw that election into chaos.
Realistically, that outcome is unlikely. Axios reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). protested To provide continued funding for the US government’s drive to pass the SAVE Act. Most Democrats and even President Joe Biden oppose the bill.
Still, the fight over the SAVE Act could put the US at risk of a government shutdown. And though it’s unlikely to become law in the next couple of months, it’s likely to be on the short list of bills that Republicans will be eager to turn into law to win the election this November.
How will the SAVE Act really affect US elections?
If the SAVE Act becomes law, it is likely to have only a minor impact on election results – although there may also be modest changes in who is allowed to vote. Flip potentially very close electionsEspecially in swing states. On its face, the bill addresses a non-issue – again, there are no legitimate concerns about non-citizen voting in the United States. And most voters have some documents they can use to register under the SAVE Act.
Still, Arizona offers a useful window into what voting under the SAVE Act might look like. In 2004, the state enacted a SAVE Act-like law that required new voters to submit documentary proof of citizenship to register. However this law Conflict with federal law which requires states to register voters who submit standardized federal forms. In 2013, the Supreme Court ruled that Arizona could not prevent registered voters using this form from voting in federal elections.
However, Arizona responded to the decision by creating a second-class tier of voters. Arizona voters who submit federal forms without documentary proof of citizenship are allowed to vote in federal elections (for Congress and president), but not in state elections.
Data from Arizona suggest that Non-white voters (those who prefer Democrats over Republicans) are more likely to be registered as federal-only voters than white voters. But college students seem to be the most affected by Arizona’s two-tiered regime.
A report by VoteBeat, a news outlet that reports on election administration, found that most Arizona polling precincts have less than a dozen total federal-only voters. But, “out of a dozen outliers with more than 300 federal-only voters,” WhatBeat reports that “All but one are located at least partially on college campuses” One exception was the Phoenix area that includes a homeless shelter.
This conclusion is intuitive. College students who leave home to get their degrees often don’t bring their passports or birth certificates with them to school, so they can’t submit them when they register to vote. (People without permanent housing may also not have immediate access to these documents because they do not have a home to store them.)
In an election so close, the law disenfranchising many college students may be unclear.
In the razor-thin 2000 election, for example, the official tally showed that President George W. Bush Won the crucial state of Florida by 537 votes. Meanwhile, the University of Florida alone Enrolls approximately 35,000 undergraduates.
So, while the SAVE Act won’t do much to address the problem of non-citizen vote fraud, it will at least have some impact on US elections.
Post Republicans threaten a government shutdown unless Congress makes it harder to vote appeared first Vox.