Given the defeat of the BJP in the Haryana Lok Sabha elections (in 2024, the BJP won only half the seats as compared to 2019) and the resentment of the Jats, political analysts are considering the atmosphere in this state to be favorable for the Congress. But the way the Bharatiya Janata Party is laying the chessboard, it seems that the path of the Congress is not easy but very difficult.
The resentment of Jats and farmers was also seen during the Lok Sabha elections, when BJP candidates were not allowed to enter many villages. Despite this, BJP had gained lead in 44 assembly constituencies. Congress was able to gain lead in a total of 42 seats, while Aam Aadmi Party also gained lead in 4 seats. It is clear that there is a close competition between Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress here. If the MLAs from Bansi Lal family, Jindal family and JJP are successful in increasing the party’s votes by 1 to 2 percent, then BJP can create history by forming the government for the third time in the state. Not only this, there are some other reasons which can give BJP an edge over Congress. Let us see how this is happening.
1- How strong will BJP become with the arrival of turncoats
The politics of Haryana has always been of Aayaram Gayaram type. Here, compared to other states, the public accepts the leaders of other parties very quickly. This experiment of the BJP has been very successful in 2014 and 2019 as well. This is the reason why the BJP is today filled with the families of the three Lals of Haryana (Devi Lal, Bansi Lal and Bhajan Lal). Not only Kuldeep Bishnoi from Bhajan Lal’s family, his mother, wife and son are all in the BJP. Bansi Lal’s daughter-in-law Kiran Chaudhary and his daughter Shruti Chaudhary have also been honoured in the BJP. Ranjit Chautala and Aditya Chautala of the Devi Lal family are also in the BJP.
BJP is sending Kiran Chaudhary to Rajya Sabha. Kiran Chaudhary has been an MLA five times, has been a minister twice and has also held the post of Leader of Opposition. Her daughter Shruti Chaudhary has been an MP. Tired of factionalism in Congress, she decided to join BJP. Bansi Lal family has a deep influence on the Jat community. With the mother-daughter joining BJP, BJP can benefit in Tosham, Loharu, Charkhi Dadri, Bhiwani, Badhra and Mahendragarh district’s Narnaul, Nangal Chaudhary and Ateli seats.
The way JJP’s two rebels Narwana MLA Ramniwas Surjakheda and Barwala MLA Jogi Ram Sihag are supporting Chaudhary’s Rajya Sabha candidature, it seems that they are going to join the ruling BJP. Apart from Kala, Surjakheda and Sihag joining the BJP, Narnaul MLA Ram Kumar Gautam, Uklana MLA Anoop Dhanak, Tohana MLA Devendra Singh Babli and Guhla MLA Ishwar Singh have not yet announced their next step. But it is understood that except Devendra Singh Babli, all others can turn to BJP. Because Gautam and Dhanuk have supported Kiran Chaudhary’s Rajya Sabha candidature. JJP MLAs had won the elections in their constituencies on their own strength and not on the strength of their party. It is clear that their joining BJP can give a good lead to the party.
Naveen Jindal and Savitri Jindal of the Jindal family have also recently joined the BJP from Congress. As soon as Naveen Jindal joined, he got a Lok Sabha ticket which he won and proved his worth. In the assembly elections too, the mother-son duo can influence many seats.
2- BJP can also benefit if Aam Aadmi Party and JJP contest elections separately
There are a total of 90 assembly seats in Haryana. This means that any party can get a majority to form the government by winning 46 seats. On the basis of the Lok Sabha elections, BJP was seen getting a lead in a total of 44 assembly seats. Whereas Congress had a lead in 42 and Aam Aadmi Party in 4. It is clear that it is a fight for every seat. On the basis of the Lok Sabha elections, BJP has to win only 2 more seats to get a majority. If Aam Aadmi Party contests the elections separately, then it is obvious that the anti-BJP votes will be divided between both Congress and Aam Aadmi Party. For this reason, it can be understood that BJP can gain a lead in a total of 4 more seats. Similarly, the division of anti-BJP votes cannot be denied if JJP contests the elections separately. In such a situation, BJP seems to be benefiting in every situation.
3- Anti-Jat sentiment can also work
The way shops, houses and vehicles of Punjabi Hindus and people from backward castes were attacked during the Jat reservation movement in Haryana was new in the history of India. After the Jat reservation movement turned violent against certain communities, BJP started getting votes from Punjabis and backward castes in bulk. BJP had handed over the reins of the state to a Punjabi, Manohar Lal Khattar. This was the reason that the Punjabi community became the victim of the anger of the Jats.
According to a report by the Indian Express, about 30% of the population in the state belongs to the OBC community. After that, Jats are second with around 25% and Scheduled Castes (SC) people are around 20%. The Punjabi community is also close to 9 percent in the state. Aiming to gain power for the third consecutive time, the BJP has started giving concessions to the OBCs. BJP leaders believe that Jat votes can be divided among themselves. Therefore, the BJP has started uniting all other communities in the state. The CM of the state is currently Nayab Saini who comes from the OBC community. A Brahmin leader has been made the president of the state BJP. To form the government, the BJP needs only 38-40% of the total votes. Which is more than the OBC, Brahmin, Punjabi and Bania combined.
Lots of free schemes for 4-44 lakh BPL families
The BJP government of Manohar Lal Khattar and then Nayab Singh Saini have made many such tempting announcements which directly increase the chances of getting votes. These include schemes ranging from housing, free transport, free education, free treatment to other schemes. BJP has also benefited from its poverty-oriented schemes in the Lok Sabha elections. According to the Haryana government’s ambitious scheme Parivar Pehchan Patra, 63 percent of the population in the state is below the poverty line. According to this, out of a population of 2 crore 86 lakh, about 1 crore 80 lakh people are BPL card holders. Actually, the BJP government increased the limit of such families by increasing the income limit for below poverty line. The government had increased the annual income limit of families from Rs 1 lakh 20 thousand to Rs 1 lakh 80 thousand to include them in the BPL category. Similarly, the BJP government had increased the income limit of pensioners to get social pension so that more people could get its benefit. Earlier, only those with an income of two lakhs used to get old age pension, but now the income limit of old age pension has been increased by one lakh to three lakh rupees. This decision directly increased the number of beneficiaries by 18 lakh.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)