Russian President Vladimir Putin is having a very social year as his country continues its war in Ukraine.
So far, Putin has met the top leaders of Asian countries china, India, Vietnam, And Indonesia. That’s plenty of publicity for a heavily sanctioned figure in a country facing sweeping trade sanctions.
And there’s a strategic reason for all those meetings, Sean McFate, an adjunct professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, told Business Insider.
Russia is trying to break out of diplomatic isolation and is looking to build strategic ties beyond autocratic partners such as China, North Korea and Iran, McPhate said.
“Putin is eyeing strategic swing nations like India, which oppose China and trade with Russia,” he added. “It gives Russia a bit of an advantage over China, because their relationship has cooled somewhat.”
On Wednesday, rubbed shoulders with Putin Prime Minister of Malaysia Anwar Ibrahim in Russia. Both the countries were ready to discuss many issues including trade and investment.
The meeting came on the heels of Putin’s visit mongolia, where he met President Ukhanagin Khurelsukh.
Mongolia, as a member of the International Criminal Court, should be Putin’s arrest There is an ICC arrest warrant against him.
But the East Asian nation said it could not jail Putin because it depends on Russia – an oil and gas giant – for its energy security.
“These supplies are vital to ensure our survival and that of our people,” a Mongolian government spokesman said. Politico.
It’s about neutrality – and economy
Mongolia’s settlement underscores the scale of Russia’s economy. It is the 11th largest in the world and has an annual GDP of about $2 trillion. World Bank.
While Russia’s economy pales in comparison to the US’s $27.4 trillion GDP, Russia is still an important partner for many developing economies.
in particular, Russia It accounts for about a tenth of the world’s oil production, making it an important resource supplier.
Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s single largest trading partner was the European Union.
Over the past two years, Russia has played a major role in supplying China and India, As well as almost anyone who wants to buy discounted energy, that is Sri Lanka When he was in an economic recession just two years ago or Turkey – NATO member and aspiring EU member.
While some countries, such as China and Vietnam, have historical ties with Russia, others such as India and Sri Lanka have also cited economic interests for their ongoing ties with Russia – especially if they themselves are in dire straits. Most, if not all, have also taken a neutral position on the war in Ukraine.
Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Serik Zhumangarin said Bloomberg Last month, the country would no longer “blindly comply with sanctions” if the sanctions hit major companies in the country. Russia was Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner before the war began.
He told the media outlet that some sanctions against Moscow have hurt Kazakhstan more than Russia and that the West has done nothing to compensate the Central Asian nation.
The economy appears to be being used in favor now to explain warm diplomatic relations with Russia while the Ukraine war is in its 31st month.
Finally, Russia a A large and globally integrated economy That too European Union Still trying to separate from.
Even China, which declared its friendship with Russia in 2022 as a partnership with “no limits,” now appears more eager to present the relationship in more pragmatic, business-like terms.
Just last month, China framed Vice Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Russia finds “great potential for complementary benefits and practical cooperation” between Moscow and Beijing.
Russia is wooing the Global South
A partnership with Russia on economic terms is unlikely to alert the US and Europe, even if there is worry And Strong criticism.
“Russia’s foreign policy blitz is unlikely to be a threat to the EU and NATO,” said Syracuse University’s McFate.
That’s because Moscow is not making military alliances with partner countries to attack Europe, which sees Russia as its top threat, he said. Russia is second only to China for America.
However, there may still be changes.
Moscow is pushing the narrative of the Global South as a force to shape an alternative world order, with emerging nations BRICS — anchored by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — form an economic bloc.
Russia is the BRICS chair this year and Putin has invited Mongolia to join the group’s summit in October. Malaysia applied to join the group, and Indonesia Also considering an invitation to join the bloc. Turkey He has also said that he is interested in joining the group.
“Indonesia, Malaysia and Mongolia are an interesting test of those nations’ ‘neutrality’ vis-à-vis China, the US, international law (eg, the ICC) and the authority of the United Nations system,” McPhate said.
Russia’s push for a multipolar world order resonates with countries that desire a more equal international order. And Moscow has shown it has influence over low- and middle-income countries, as evidenced by the non-participation or low-level participation of some Asian countries in June’s Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at RAND. , a think tank wrote in July Commentary For foreign policy.
“While Russia’s influence is not at the level of China or the United States, it is certainly enough to promote its anti-Western interests and disrupt an already precarious regional order,” Grossman wrote.
Countries around the world are weighing mobility.
“Regional allies will be watching with interest to see if the great powers can play off each other,” McFate said.
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