Maha Aghadi vs Maha Yuti: Which alliance is stronger where in Maharashtra

Political activities have intensified in Maharashtra with the possibility of elections. Both the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), and Mahayuti – Bharatiya Janata Party, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) – are facing internal problems over ticket distribution and the face for the post of Chief Minister.

The political scenario of Maharashtra has changed after the split of Shiv Sena and NCP. While the MVA is hoping to win the state on the basis of its recent Lok Sabha performance, the Mahayuti is trying to retain power on the basis of populist schemes being run for women and youth.

MVA dominance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections

The two alliances have never contested assembly elections together. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the MVA edged out the Mahayuti in local contests under the shadow of “manipulation” politics. The MVA won 30 of the 48 seats, while the Mahayuti won 17 seats.

In MVA, Congress won 13 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) 9 seats and NCP (Sharad Pawar) 8 seats. In Mahayuti, BJP won 9 seats, Shiv Sena (Shinde) 7 seats and NCP (Ajit Pawar) won only 1 seat. It was a close contest where both alliances got around 44 percent vote share. Of the 15 seats where the margin of victory was five percent or less, MVA won 9 and Mahayuti won 6 seats.

In terms of lead in assembly constituencies, MVA was ahead in 153 seats (Congress 63, SHS-UBT 57, NCP-SP 33), while Mahayuti was ahead in 126 seats (BJP 79, SHS-Shinde 40, NCP-AP 6, and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha 1). The simple majority figure in the state assembly is 145 seats.

who is so strong

Generally, we take into account the results of the last three assembly elections to assess the strength of a party in a seat. Since the two regional parties in the state have split into four, the assembly leads as per the 2024 Lok Sabha have also been taken into account. The seats have been divided into five categories – very strong, strong, medium, difficult, and weak.

While Shiv Sena and NCP are with their original election symbols, their original leaders have now been replaced by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. The strength of these parties has been assessed keeping in mind the fact that from 2009 to 2019 the party was a united unit, while in 2024, two factions of both the parties contested separately. For BJP, Congress, Shiv Sena and NCP, the assembly elections of 2009, 2014 and 2019 and the Lok Sabha election of 2024 have been taken into account.

If a party wins or leads in any of these four elections, it is considered a very strong seat. If a party wins or leads in three elections on a seat, it is considered strong. Winning or leading in two elections is considered medium and winning in just one election is considered difficult. If a party fails to win even a single election on a seat, it is considered a weak seat. Apart from this, weak seats also include those which the party has never contested.

Congress has 7 very strong seats, 26 strong seats, 32 moderate seats, 61 difficult seats, and 162 weak seats. BJP has 14 very strong seats, 37 strong seats, 62 moderate seats, 61 difficult seats, and 114 weak seats. NCP has 1 very strong seat, 15 strong seats, 28 moderate seats, 58 difficult seats, and 186 weak seats. Shiv Sena has 5 very strong seats, 12 strong seats, 39 moderate seats, 69 difficult seats, and 163 weak seats.

The NCP-SP and SHS-UBT have contested only one of these four elections – the 2024 general election. If these parties were leading in a general election in a seat (1 out of 1 wins) then the seat is considered “very strong”. If they were not leading in any seat (1 out of 0 wins) then it is considered a weak seat. Using this formula, the NCP-SP has 33 very strong seats and 255 weak seats. The SHS-UBT has 57 very strong seats and 231 weak seats.

As these two parties contest more elections in the future, their numbers may gradually become normal. For ease of understanding and comparison with the other four parties, let us assume that NCP-SP has 33 very strong, strong and medium seats while 255 difficult and weak seats. SHS-UBT has 57 very strong, strong and medium seats while 231 difficult and weak seats.

Ticket Distribution

The strength scanner can be used as the basis for ticket distribution by the MVA and the Mahayuti. Any party would want to stake claim on very strong, strong and moderate seats. There are 65 such seats for the Congress. For the BJP, the number is 113. There are 44 such seats for the NCP and 56 for the Shiv Sena. The NCP-SP and SHS-UBT would not want to give up their claim on the 33 and 57 seats where they are leading in the 2024 general elections under any circumstances.

The geographical distribution of seats gives an indication of which party will get more seats in which region. Maharashtra is a large state, with six different regions. Western Maharashtra has 70 seats, Vidarbha has 62, North Maharashtra has 35, Marathwada has 46, Thane-Konkan has 39, and Mumbai alone has 36 seats.

Half of the Congress’ 162 vulnerable seats are in Western Maharashtra and Thane-Konkan, where it will have to leave the NCP-SP and SHS-UBT in the lead. Half of the BJP’s 114 vulnerable seats are in Western Maharashtra, where the NCP (Ajit Pawar) will be in the lead, and the Marathwada seats will be split among all three parties.

Half of the NCP’s 186 vulnerable seats are in Vidarbha and Mumbai. It will have to leave Mumbai for BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Vidarbha for BJP. Half of the Shiv Sena’s 163 vulnerable seats are in Western Maharashtra and Vidarbha, where it will have to give an edge to NCP (Ajit Pawar) and BJP. Half of the NCP-SP’s vulnerable seats are in Vidarbha, Mumbai and Thane-Konkan, and SHS-UBT’s vulnerable seats are in Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra.

A total of 213 seats fall under very strong, strong and moderate seats for the Mahayuti. Similarly, there are 155 seats where the MVA should not have any problem in ticket distribution.