Last Updated on 03/09/2024 by Arun jain
Kamala Harris lead over Donald Trump The polls are “continually being cut,” according to one pollster.
Harris leads Trump by 1.6 points, 50.8 percent to his 49.2 percent, within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, according to a new Activot poll conducted between Aug. 25 and Sept. 2.
In the latest Activvote poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted between August 15 and 23, she has a narrow 5-point lead over Trump.
“Harris’ poll numbers steadily improved for about three to four weeks after Biden left, followed by a two-week period where he hovered around a 5-point lead. The 5-point lead has steadily declined to just under 2 percent over the past five days,” Activvote said. Pollster Victor Ellis wrote.
Newsweek Harris and the Trump campaign have been reached by email for comment.
Trump was running for president before Harris launched his campaign Joe Biden nationally and in seven swing states. However, Harris’ candidacy appears to have breathed new life into the Democratic campaign, with polls showing her overtaking Trump’s lead nationally and leading in six of seven swing states in the days and weeks since Biden ended his re-election campaign.
But polls show Harris’ lead shrinking. Voter Nate Silver’s forecast model on Friday showed Trump leading Harris in the Electoral College for the first time since early August. Their model gave Trump a 52.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, nearly 5 points higher than Harris’ 47.3 percent.
“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way and a 48/52 race the other way—it’s not a big difference—it wasn’t a good day. Kamala Harris In our model, because Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3,” Silver wrote in an update.
His model also shows that Republicans Every swing state except Georgia saw a net gain of between 0.2 and 2.1 points over the past week.
He added that his model accounted for any inflation in the polls due to an expected boost for Harris following the Democratic National Convention.
But he said Harris’ election standing could resume as the model becomes more confident that she is out of the convention bounce period.
Meanwhile, Six bookies put Trump ahead of HarrisIncluding Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, 888sport, Betfair and Unibet, although the two presidential candidates were linked to Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
Swing state polls have also shown bad news for Harris. The most recent survey shows the USA and KSTP polls Harris’ lead was cut in half 10 to 5 points in Minnesota since late July.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker also shows Harris’ lead in Michigan shrinking from 3.3 points on August 21 to 2.4 points.
Recent polls have also shown that Trump leads in PennsylvaniaA survey by the Trafalgar Group showed the former president leading by 2 points, while Vic polls and Emerson College polls showed the two candidates tied among likely voters in the state.
“If she is now tied only in Pennsylvania, in what should be one of her strong polling periods, it suggests a bit of an underdog in November,” Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin newsletter.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Harris leading his opponent nationally by 3.2 points. The silver model puts Harris 3.5 points ahead of Trump nationally. Both show that his lead has steadily increased since July.
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