Assembly elections are being held in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years. Although then elections were held for the state of Jammu and Kashmir, now people will vote for the Union Territory. For the first time after the abolition of 370 and 35A, people here will participate in the assembly elections. In the Lok Sabha elections, the people here have shown that there is less space in their hearts for old parties like National Conference, PDP and Congress. Although National Conference did get 2 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, the defeat of National Conference leader and former Chief Minister of the state Omar Abdullah shows that the dominance of the party has now weakened. Despite this, it is clear that by coming together with Congress and National Conference, both the parties will get strengthened. But hope is not over for BJP. Because in Jammu and Kashmir, no party seems to have the strength to win more than 35-40 seats.
How much damage will the Congress-NCP alliance cause to BJP?
If the Lok Sabha elections are taken as the basis, then the National Conference was leading in a total of 34 assembly seats. Congress has also got a chance to lead in seven seats. It is clear that this alliance can hope to win a total of 41 seats. But out of the seven seats, Congress had two seats which were Hindu majority seats. It is possible that in a face-to-face fight, the BJP-supported candidate may benefit instead of Congress in the Hindu majority seats. Because in the assembly elections, Congress and National Conference are together. However, there is a possibility of some more parties joining the Congress and NC alliance. If this happens, then this alliance can become stronger. Another thing is that in the alliances that will be formed to form the government after the elections, PDP and other parties can also go with this alliance. It is worth noting that in the Lok Sabha elections, PDP was leading in 5 assembly constituencies while Engineer Rashid’s party was leading in 14 assembly constituencies. Therefore, it should be expected that these parties will also get some seats.
This alliance can also be a challenge for BJP because Congress plans to restrict BJP to 20 seats in Jammu division. Opposition to BJP on local issues cannot be denied. But the way Pakistan sponsored attacks have taken place in Jammu region in recent months has once again changed the attitude of people towards BJP here.
But Congress will have to bear the loss of alliance as well. BJP will raise this issue loudly that National Conference (NC) has promised to change the name of Hari/Shankaracharya Parvat to Takht-e-Suleman in its manifesto. Along with this, NC manifesto also talks about talks and mediation with Pakistan and abolishing 370. It is obvious that Hindus of Jammu region may get angry with Congress on these issues. This is the reason why BJP leaders keep demanding Congress and Rahul Gandhi to clear their stand on 370 and 35A.
What is the math in favor of BJP
Assembly elections are to be held on a total of 90 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. Out of these, 47 seats are in Kashmir, while 43 seats are in Jammu. BJP has set a target to win all the 30 Hindu majority seats in Jammu region at any cost. In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP was leading on 29 of these seats. Along with this, BJP is also planning to win about seven seats in Rajouri region of Jammu where Hindu voters play a decisive role. Media reports say that BJP plans to contest elections on only 25 assembly seats in Kashmir Valley. BJP can support independents and candidates of local parties on the remaining 22 seats. It is also being said that BJP can field Kashmiri Pandits as candidates on some other seats of the valley including Habbakadal, Baramulla.
There are about 22 thousand registered votes of displaced Kashmiri Pandits in Habbakadal area of Srinagar. BJP is planning to gather them in maximum numbers and get them to vote. Out of 1 lakh 22 thousand displaced Kashmiri Pandits, votes of 68/70 thousand have been registered, the party is making preparations to get them to cast their votes too.
After the announcement of elections, the strength of Bharatiya Janata Party has increased in Pir Panjal region. Founding member and vice president of Jammu Kashmir Apni Party Choudhary Zulfikar Ali has joined BJP along with his supporters.
In this way, if BJP manages to win even 35 seats, then it can get the support of 5 more MLAs appointed from the Lieutenant Governor’s quota. Along with increasing the assembly seats in the new delimitation, the central government has also made a provision to nominate two displaced Kashmiri Pandits as MLAs. Apart from these, there is a provision to nominate one member of the displaced community from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and two women as MLAs. Obviously, the votes of these nominated members will go to BJP only. Still, BJP will need about 5 to 7 seats for an absolute majority. BJP has already made preparations for this. For the possibility of post-poll alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party has deputed a leader like Ram Madhav. Obviously, a big game of post-poll alliance is going to be played in Kashmir.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)