It has been only a few months since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) formed the government for the third consecutive time by winning 291 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. The PM Modi-led government is about to complete three months of its third term. How much has the mood of the public changed after the initial tenure of the new government and how much would the picture of Delhi Darbar change if general elections were held today? What would be the new scene in the states? To know this, Aaj Tak conducted a Mood of the Nation survey in collaboration with C-Voter. What are the 10 big takeaways from this survey?
1- Modi is most popular for the post of PM, but the graph has decreased
Narendra Modi is the most popular face for the post of Prime Minister. However, his popularity graph has also declined. In the Mood of the Nation survey in February before the Lok Sabha elections, more than 54 percent people said Narendra Modi was their choice for the post of PM. Rahul Gandhi was the choice of about 14 percent people. This time the number of people who said Narendra Modi was a better choice for PM has come down to less than 50 percent. 49 percent people have said Narendra Modi is a better choice for PM, while 22 percent people believe that Rahul Gandhi will prove to be a better PM. When asked who has been the best Prime Minister of the country so far, 52 percent people named Narendra Modi.
The activism of the opposition is being said to be the main factor behind the fall in Narendra Modi’s popularity and the rise in Rahul Gandhi’s popularity. Congress is focusing on exposing the shortcomings of the government from Parliament to social media. Issues like paper leak, inflation and unemployment are also being said to be the reason behind the fall in PM Modi’s popularity. In the same survey, 28 percent people have held the central government responsible for the paper leak. The youth had a major share in PM Modi’s popularity and this section is affected by paper leak and unemployment. Its effect is visible in the survey.
2- The number of people dissatisfied with PM Modi’s work has increased
34% people have described PM Modi’s performance as good. 15% people have described it as average, 10% as bad and 13% as very bad. In the month of February this year, about 42% people had described PM Modi’s work as very good and 18.7% people had described it as good. The number of people who described it as average was 11.7%, those who described it as bad was 13.1% and those who described it as very bad was 10.5%.
The latest figures of Mood of the Nation show that the number of people who said PM Modi’s performance was good has fallen drastically. 10% people said it was bad and 13% said it was very bad, i.e. a total of 23% people said the PM’s performance was bad. This number is almost the same as it was in the previous survey. The number of people who said it was average has increased.
The weakening of emotional issues and the rise of issues like inflation and unemployment are said to be the main reasons behind the decrease in the number of people satisfied with PM Modi’s work. Till February, the Ram Mandir issue was a big one. The impact of the Modi government’s decisions after the elections and then changing them is also seen on public opinion.
3- BJP-Congress, seats of both are increasing
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, BJP had won 240 seats and Congress 99 seats. According to the MOTN survey, if elections were held today, BJP would get 244 seats and Congress 106 seats. BJP’s seats are increasing by four and Congress’s by seven. Other parties may get 193 seats.
The increase in seats of both BJP and Congress is being linked to the notion of increasing bipolar contest. Congress seems to be trying to remove the tag of inactive opposition in the initial months of PM Modi’s third term. Congress seems to be getting the benefit of its activism in the form of increased seats. One reason is the boost received from the Lok Sabha election results. The morale of Congress workers and leaders is also high.
4- Those parties which are not in any camp
The graph of those parties which are neither in NDA nor in India Block, are not in any of the two camps, is seen falling. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, non-NDA, non-India parties and independents won 16 seats. According to the Mood of the Nation survey, if elections were held today, others could get 11 seats.
The reason behind this is being attributed to the increasing inclination of people towards national parties regarding national politics and the tendency of bipolar contest. Its effect was also seen in the Lok Sabha elections and the seats of other parties which contested the elections alone without joining any alliance were reduced to only 16.
5- Popularity of Rahul Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi’s popularity graph has increased. In February 2024, about 14 percent of the people had declared Rahul Gandhi as their choice for the post of PM. Whereas six months later, in the latest survey, the number of people who declared Rahul as their choice for PM has reached 22 percent. More than 50 percent of the people have described Rahul Gandhi’s work as good as the leader of the opposition.
Also read: Mood of the Nation: 9 states and 9 surprising factors… How is BJP’s performance in Congress-ruled states and areas of regional satraps?
Along with his travels, his work as the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha is also being cited as the reason behind Rahul’s rising graph. Rahul Gandhi has been vocal about issues ranging from caste census to Agniveer and legal guarantee of MSP for farmers. Sometimes travelling in a truck, sometimes in a cab, sometimes stitching shoes at a cobbler’s shop, sometimes going to a furniture shop and making stools, Rahul Gandhi’s image has also changed due to all these.
6- Congress’ work as opposition
As an opposition, 18% people have described the work of Congress as very good, 26% people have described it as good. 20% people have described it as average and 14% people have described it as bad. As an opposition, the image of Congress is changing. Whether it is the issue of removal of indexation on capital gains tax or the Wakf bill, when the government was forced to find a middle path, it has also had a positive impact on the image of Congress.
7- What is the biggest problem?
In the Mood of the Nation survey, 28 percent people have said unemployment is the biggest problem. 19 percent people have said inflation, 6 percent people have said poverty, 6 percent people have said agricultural crisis and 5 percent people have said electricity, water and roads are the biggest problems. In the last MoTN, 26 percent people had said unemployment is the biggest problem.
Also read: Mood of the Nation Survey: If elections are held today, Congress’s seats will increase, know where BJP’s graph will reach
The prominent emergence of issues like unemployment and inflation can become a cause of trouble for the ruling parties. In Jharkhand and Haryana, about 44 percent of the people have considered unemployment a big issue, which is much higher than the national average of 28 percent. These figures cannot be called good signs for the ruling parties of these states. Experts are also saying that if problems like unemployment and inflation become issues, then it can put BJP in trouble for the general elections.
8- The best CM
UP CM Yogi Adityanath has once again come first in the race for the best CM. In the Mood of the Nation survey, 43 percent people have said Yogi Adityanath is the best CM of the country. In the month of February, 46.3 percent people had said he was the best CM of the country. The number of people satisfied with CM Yogi’s work has also decreased from 51 percent in February to 39 percent.
Also read: Yogi, Mamta, Kejriwal, Shinde, Hemant… due to which factor the graph of which CM is fluctuating
9- How effective is the bet of the new CM in Haryana?
Before the Lok Sabha elections in Haryana, BJP had played the gamble of changing the CM. 22 percent of the people of the state have described the performance of CM Nayab Saini as satisfactory. 19 percent of the people are somewhat satisfied. While the number of satisfied and somewhat satisfied people is 41 percent, the number of dissatisfied is also 40 percent. The face of the government has changed but this gamble does not seem to be that effective, at least according to this survey. The number of satisfied and dissatisfied people is almost equal. In such a situation, the attitude of these somewhat satisfied voters can prove to be decisive.
Also read: MOTN: If elections were held today, who would get how many seats, what are the major issues… Understand the mood of the country through 15 graphics
10- What is the condition of Shinde’s Shiv Sena in Maharashtra?
According to the MOTN survey, the popularity of Shiv Sena chief and Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is increasing. In August 2024, 35 percent people are satisfied with Shinde’s work, 31 percent people are somewhat satisfied and 28 percent people are dissatisfied. 25 percent people have expressed satisfaction with the functioning of the government. 34 percent people are somewhat satisfied and the number of dissatisfied people is also 34 percent. This data shows that the public has a mixed opinion about the performance of the government.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)