Colorado State University hurricane researchers are working to temper expectations for a potentially record-breaking year but are not yet ready to wave the white flag and signal a premature end to the season.
On Tuesday, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at CSU, said Tropical cyclone activity in the basin is expected to remain normal or below normal At least until September 16.
There is only a 10% chance of above-normal activity during the next few weeks as the basin record remains dormant.
In fact, the lack of tropical activity from August 12 to September 3 was the quietest period of tropical weather development in 56 years, with the basin now beginning to lag the main parameters for the average season.
On Sept. 4, an average season would have produced seven named tropical storms, two hurricanes and one major cyclone.
So far in 2024, the basin has seen five named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
However, with limited activity expected over the next two weeks, the basin is likely to fall short of what it produces in a normal year.
“So, what has been holding back the storms for the past few weeks? I think monsoon conditions are a big problem in Africa,” Klotzbach told Fox Weather.
“We’ve experienced an unusual cooling in the Gulf of Guinea region, associated with an Atlantic Niña trend (although we can’t officially meet the definition). Because of this, we have a strong cross-equatorial (sea surface temperature) and sea level pressure gradient, helping to push the monsoon trough very far north if you’re looking for hurricane activity.”
What is happening to the tropics?
Forecasters are highlighting at least four different factors that are weighing on the activity: the location of the monsoon trough over Africa, cooler water in the eastern Atlantic, significantly warmer temperatures in the upper atmosphere and abundant dry air around the eastern edge. of the basin
Computer models are not keen on picking up these deviations from the norm, which could negate potentially favorable features such as reduced vertical wind shear, near-record sea surface temperatures, an enhanced African monsoon, and emerging La Niña conditions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
With all this, the most important and only question that remains is whether favorable conditions will return to the basin or if the season is effectively over.
“I think it’s too early to bail on the season,” Klotzbach said.
“The recent EPS ensemble is stronger over Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. as We talk in our two-week forecastThe current National Hurricane Center area in the Caribbean will look after entering the Gulf of Mexico. Also, a strong easterly wave looks set to move away from Africa in about a week. It’s too early to know what will happen to that system, but overall, the conditions for its intensity look very healthy at this point.
It is still possible that the season could reach normal levels of activity with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, but significantly more than what the average season produces.
It’s important to remember that a normal season can be just as impressive as a busy year above average.
The 2022 season was considered close to a normal season with 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, and two majors, but saw the production of Hurricane Ian, resulting in the year being the third costliest in history.
In contrast, 2023 was considered a busier-than-average season with 20 named hurricanes but the U.S. in a decade. So it was the least impressive.
Tropical activity is low all over the world
The researchers did not mention in their latest update that activity around the world is at record-low levels despite record-warming sea surface temperatures.
In other words, the Atlantic does not experience only one year; The basins of the Indian and Pacific oceans are similarly affected by widespread subsidence.
An overall decrease in activity is not unheard of because tropical meteorologists, including Klotzbach, have long suggested that overall global tropical cyclone activity is declining around the world, particularly in the western Pacific.
“Examining global TC activity from 1990 to 2021, we find significant decreasing trends in global hurricane number and ACE, mainly due to a significant decreasing trend in the western North Pacific,” The researchers said in a 2022 report.
However, the state’s cyclones as reported are becoming costly and likely to intensify quickly.
It remains to be seen whether the dramatic slowdown in tropical cyclone activity worldwide is a precursor to less impressive years to come or whether it was just an anomalous year.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic, eastern, and central Pacific lasts until November 30, but basins such as the western Pacific can experience year-round activity.
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