Last Updated on 10/09/2024 by Arun jain
After weeks of Democratic euphoria following the sudden surge of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential nomination, the party’s jubilant August has given way to a season of anxiety, as former President Donald J. Another nail is being prepared against Trump.
Asked what should keep Democrats up at night, Patrick Murray, who directs the polling institute at Monmouth University, answered bluntly, “They can lose.”
Mr. Murray said that outcome seemed almost guaranteed before President Biden pulled out of his re-election bid later this summer. Now, he added, elections are simply “a close race, a race you’re almost certain to lose.”
A national poll of likely voters By The New York Times and Siena College In the poll released on Sunday, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 47 percent, within a three-percentage-point margin of error.
On the eve of the only scheduled debate between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, here’s a look at some of the key concerns emerging for Democrats, based on interviews with pollsters, party strategists and elected officials:
Can they really translate enthusiasm into votes?
Before Mr. Biden left, He appeared remarkably weak Among important groups of Democratic-leaning voters, including blacks, Hispanics and young Americans.
Polls have shown Ms. Harris making ground with some of those voters, And a Gallup survey released last month Democratic fervor increased significantly.
But leading Democrats caution that expressing excitement at the polls is not the same as voting.
“That enthusiasm is real,” said Senator Tina Smith of Minnesota, vice chair of the Democratic Senate campaign arm. “We now have to turn that energy into support for our candidates.”
“What keeps me awake right now is just complacency, that people are riding that wave of energy and getting the job done at the grassroots,” she added.
While Ms. Harris has improved Mr. Biden’s standing with some key Democratic-leaning groups, she still fell short of traditional Democratic strength in the Times/Sienna poll. Notably, she was the choice of 55 percent of Hispanic voters in a matchup against Mr. Trump, compared to Mr. Biden’s 52 percent. in June. He won 65 percent of Hispanic voters in 2020, according to Exit polls.
Some Democrats also worry that Black men, especiallyThis year may be more receptive to Mr. Trump.
LaTosha Brown, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, expressed doubt that Mr. Trump would win over a significant number of those voters.
“I’m less concerned that he’ll be able to get in with black people,” said Ms. Brown, who supports the Democratic ticket. “My biggest fear is that people aren’t voting in the numbers that I think we need.”
Representative Suzanne Delben, a Washington Democrat who chairs the House Democratic campaign arm, said in an interview that enthusiasm “definitely does” translate into votes — “when people not only feel enthusiastic, but actually show up to help make it happen.” Working to get votes.”
Are Democrats soft in Pennsylvania?
Electoral-vote-rich Pennsylvania may be the most crucial battleground state on the map, and polls show a very close race in a place that was decided by one percentage point or less in the last two presidential elections. The Times poll shows an average race Essentially tied in the state, one point up with Ms. Harris.
With a large population Residents who don’t have college degrees — a constituency that has increasingly favored Republicans — and Mr. With Biden, a Scranton native, no longer on the ticket, Democrats in the state expect a very close race.
Representative Brendan Boyle, a Pennsylvania Democrat, said that was the case “when Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee, and I think it’s still the case as Kamala Harris is the nominee.” (Before Mr. Biden’s disastrous June debate performance, the race appeared close in the state.)
But, Mr. Boyle said, Mr. Biden “dramatically overperformed” in 2020 in northeastern Pennsylvania, an area that typifies that type. A working class, historically democratic region Where Mr. Trump has come to make a strong appeal.
“That’s where he’s got a certain home-field advantage that’s going to be hard for anybody to duplicate,” Mr. Boyle said of Mr. Biden. “We probably have to work harder, especially in the Scranton area.”
He said he expected Ms. Harris, like Mr. Biden, to try to engage working-class voters, something she and especially her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, has already started to do
Mr. Boyle also noted the flip side of the education divide, saying he expected Democrats to maintain or expand their already significant advantage among white college-educated voters, especially women.
Those constituencies played an important role in transforming the Philadelphia suburbs from moderate or even Republican territory to increasingly reliable bastions of Democratic support since 2016. Democrats are counting on moving to the margins again there.
Trump seems to be floundering. Why is the race so close?
By many measures, Mr. Trump — the first American president to be convicted of a crime — had a terrible end to his summer.
He held back Mrs. Harris In raising funds and Struggled to run A constant message against it. It faded into another news cycle About abortion rightsand his campaign There was a clash with the army On a visit to Arlington National Cemetery by him and his team. And Mr. Trump, who authored E. Jean was found responsible for sexually abusing and defaming Carroll, Went out of his way last week To remind the country that he faces allegations of sexual misconduct from multiple women.
Yet many polls show him effectively tied with Ms. Harris, and Americans with a significant advantage over what matters most to him: the economy.
“It’s also a tight race — like, it really hurts me,” Ms. Brown said, adding that she was also concerned about how racism and sexism “weaponized” Ms. Harris, a black and South Asian Democrat. “Will happen. “
Some Democrats also said they expected Mr. Trump to eventually find effective lines of attack.
The Harris campaign has argued that he is the underdog And pointing to its strong infrastructure in the battleground states, it will run the aggressive race that such a situation requires.
Democrats are also significantly ahead of Republicans in reservations for television advertising in key states in presidential races through Election Day, according to recent data from media tracking firm AdImpact.
But the debate will be the biggest test yet of whether Ms. Harris can erode Mr. Trump’s lasting gains, as she continues to introduce herself to a closely divided country.
Older voters chose Biden. Will they be sold at Harris?
Mr. Biden, 81, has generally fared slightly better than Democrats among his fellow older Americans, holding a slim lead among likely voters 65 and older in a Times/Sienna national poll in June despite losing those voters to Mr. Trump in 2020.
In a recent survey, however, Mr. Trump led Ms. Harris with those voters, 52 percent to 46 percent, signaling a potential challenge for Ms. Harris with a traditionally reliable voting bloc.
“Biden was unusually strong for a Democrat among older voters,” said Mr. Murray, the Monmouth polling director. “Those are going to be voters that you’re worried are going to slip away from you with this new candidate.”
Still, John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster whose firm helps conduct bipartisan polling for AARP, said in an interview last week that Ms. Harris was broadly competitive with many older voters, something that was also evident in the Times/Sienna. battlefield State voting last month
He noted the work of the Biden-Harris administration on issues that have benefited older Americans — capping Cost of insulin For seniors, for instance — and said some older voters were particularly turned off by Mr. Trump’s style.
“Trump is not his kind of Republican,” he said.
What surprises are in store?
This election has all the traditional unknowns: Will the economy change significantly? Another stunning development on a volatile global stage? Or a wild October surprise?
But beyond that, Democrats are grappling with fears stemming from their experience in recent elections.
There are concerns About foreign influence, disinformation and disinformation. Some have nagging doubts About whether the country would elect a woman, especially a black woman, as president. Many worry how Mr Trump, who tried to overturn his 2020 defeat, will respond if he loses again in November.
And then there are the traces of polling errors of 2016, when national and especially state elections Constantly underestimating Mr. Trump.
“I feel pretty good if the polls are right,” Mr. Boyle, the Pennsylvania congressman, said. “What will keep me still, are the polls right by a few points or off or underestimating Trump’s support?”
Post Here’s what to keep Democrats occupied the night before the debate appeared first New York Times.