The intensity of cross-border attacks between Hezbollah and Israel has decreased since a spectacular exchange of attacks on August 25.
But after an eventful week in Israel, where news of the execution of six Israeli prisoners fueled protests against Netanyahu’s government, analysts are questioning whether the prime minister can step up as a distraction on other fronts.
“We’re going to exact a heavy price from Hamas; I’m not going to tell you what the price will be and what we’re going to do; There will be an element of surprise here,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a media conference on Monday.
But aside from demanding a permanent Israeli presence in the Philadelphia Corridor along Egypt’s Sinai border, ensuring that Gaza ceasefire talks remain paralyzed, Netanyahu has given little indication of the direction he will take.
It also remains to be seen whether Hezbollah has drawn a line in the sand and demonstrated enough deterrence to discourage Israel from viewing it as a potential distraction.
The buildup
A day after launching a revenge war on Gaza following a Hamas-led attack on Israel, Hezbollah began intensifying attacks on Israel on October 8, killing 1,139 people and capturing nearly 240.
As the boiling point is reached, tension builds.
On 31 July, Israel attacked a building in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Five people were killed – two children, two women and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukar.
Israel said Shukr was responsible for an attack on Majdal Shams in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights that killed 12 children. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack.
Shukra was the most high-profile, but not the first, assassination of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon by Israel.
On January 8, Israel killed Wissam al-Taweel, commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, in Majdal Salem, six days after Israel killed Saleh al-Arouri, a senior officer of Hamas’ Qassam Brigades, in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
After Shukra’s killing, cross-border attacks intensified as Hezbollah vowed to avenge their fallen comrade.
In the early morning of August 25, Israel launched a preemptive attack on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, using 100 jets to attack thousands of Hezbollah launch sites.
At least 15 Lebanese towns were hit in Israel’s most extensive attack on Hezbollah since October 8.
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah launched his attack the same morning, with Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah saying 340 rockets had been fired into Israel, targeting 11 military and intelligence sites and more than a mile (1.6 km) from Tel Aviv. The nearby Guillot military base was hit.
Hezbollah released a statement saying the “first phase” of the retaliation was successfully completed.
Netanyahu rejected Nasrallah’s claim, saying that Gillot was not hit.
Renewed deterrence?
Hezbollah has repeatedly said its war with Israel is tied to Gaza and will stop once a ceasefire is achieved.
Some, however, including some Western diplomats, treat it as a separate conflict Reportedly works for months To avoid a wider war in Lebanon.
Analysts said the latest attack was aimed at restoring a level of deterrence to Israel from attacking top Hezbollah leaders, particularly from influencing cities such as Beirut.
“Hezbollah has really restored a significant level of resilience following its massive reprisal campaign to avenge the killing of Fouad Shukar,” Imad Salami, a political analyst at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.
“This refutes Israel’s claim of significantly reducing Hezbollah’s capabilities and clearly shows that Hezbollah maintains firm command and control despite Israel’s 10-month-long, very expensive military campaign aimed at weakening the party,” Salami added.
Regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s exchange, analysts told Al Jazeera, certain stability has returned to the conflict that Threats spiral out of control And Draw in players region and beyond.
Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah told each other that neither wanted further escalation. Analysts also believe that tensions have eased, at least temporarily.
“For Lebanon, of the party [Hezbollah] The attack has returned things to what they were before the assassination of Fuad Shukr,” Qasim Kasir, a political analyst believed to be close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.
“I see [this latest exchange] Mostly as a US-orchestrated effort on the turn [the page] and prevent escalation,” said Karim Emil Bitar, professor of international relations at St. Joseph University in Beirut.
“Israel will probably continue to strike specific targets in Lebanon but I doubt they will go after a big guy like Fuad Shukar in the near future.”
A period of peace
The possibility of an escalating war in Lebanon seemed to be presented soon after August 25, but given the internal upheaval in Israel, it remains to be seen whether the conflict will flare up again.
Israel has killed more than 560 people in Lebanon since October 8, more than 130 of them civilians. On the Israeli side, attacks from Lebanon have killed around 23 soldiers and 26 civilians.
Thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the border, while Israelis have reportedly tried to establish A buffer zone By trying to make the land in southern Lebanon uninhabitable and uncultivable.
While many have expressed weariness about the ongoing conflict, its end is still not entirely in sight.
“Any miscalculation [from Israel] A very costly and protracted military retaliation could trigger a campaign, which is proving very costly for Israel on multiple levels, both militarily and politically,” Salami said.
“Hezbollah’s demonstrated resilience and readiness means that Israel must weigh the risks more carefully before engaging in further escalation.”
Many in Lebanon, Israel and beyond who fear a full-scale war may be breathing a temporary sigh of relief, but the storm has not yet completely passed.
“Increases are still possible,” Kasir said. “We are in a period of peace, but it is not guaranteed.”
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