Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has sought opinion from the state leaders on the possibility of alliance with Aam Aadmi Party in Haryana assembly elections. While talking to the leaders of Haryana in the meeting of Congress’s Central Election Committee, Rahul Gandhi appeared to be in favour of alliance between AAP and Congress. Congress and Aam Aadmi Party fought the Lok Sabha elections jointly in Haryana, Gujarat, Goa, Delhi and Chandigarh but did not get the expected success. On the contrary, the local units of both the parties feel that the reason for their defeat was the alliance with the other party. Perhaps this is the reason that whether it is Delhi or Punjab-Haryana, the workers and local leaders of both the parties do not want any alliance between them. But Rahul Gandhi’s eyes are set on alliance with AAP, which is not without reason. There are many valid reasons behind this.
1- Rahul Gandhi wants to become stronger in the central opposition on the pretext of alliance in Haryana
Actually Rahul Gandhi is looking ahead. He feels that if the Bharatiya Janata Party weakens a little more in the future, there can be a possibility for Congress to form the government. Rahul Gandhi knows that forming a government with full majority at the center is still a distant dream for the Congress. Another thing is that even if India Alliance comes to power, there can be many contenders for the post of PM. Some people like Uddhav Thackeray can also come who say that even though we have less seats, we will become the PM.
This is the reason why Rahul Gandhi is thinking of promoting the alliance keeping in mind a well thought out strategy. For this, it may happen that Congress may suffer losses in many places. But in his eyes, NDA’s strategy is visible. BJP is playing the role of younger brother in Maharashtra and Bihar despite having more seats. Rahul has understood that if the alliance has to be followed, then he will have to be ready to make sacrifices like BJP. It is clear that alliance with Aam Aadmi Party in Haryana is not beneficial for Congress. It is not that these things would not have been told to him earlier. But Rahul Gandhi’s aim is to make India Alliance stand as the grand opposition against NDA at the national level.
2- Why Congress-AAP alliance can be beneficial in Haryana
AAP’s influence is less in Haryana than in Delhi, but the party got good results from four assembly constituencies during the Lok Sabha elections. AAP’s presence in this race could influence the result, potentially diverting votes from the BJP or Congress.
If we analyse the 2024 Lok Sabha results, we can understand that if Aam Aadmi Party and Congress contest separately, BJP may benefit. Booth-level data shows that BJP has gained lead in 44 out of 90 assembly constituencies, Congress in 42 and Aam Aadmi Party in four. Thus, if assembly elections were held at the time of Lok Sabha elections, the alliance of Congress and Aam Aadmi Party would have won 46 seats together. Meaning that they would have won the majority to form the government. It is clear that if both the parties contest separately on the basis of Lok Sabha elections, then BJP seems to be getting majority. There can be no doubt that there is strength in alliance. Perhaps Rahul Gandhi is thinking the same.
3-But the thinking of Haryana unit of Congress is also correct
Aam Aadmi Party is not in a strong position in Haryana right now. Still its demand for seats is very high. While the leaders of Haryana Congress believe that Aam Aadmi Party’s capacity is not more than 3 to 4 seats in Haryana. In the meeting of the Central Election Committee of Congress on Monday, Rahul Gandhi asked whether contesting the elections alone will not cause harm. Is there any possibility of an alliance? Former Chief Minister and senior Congress leader Bhupendra Singh Hooda answered Rahul’s question. He said, Aam Aadmi Party is demanding more seats, so it is difficult to form an alliance with them. Hooda said that three to four seats can be given, but Aam Aadmi Party’s desire is big.
Actually, Congress did not get much benefit from the electoral alliance with Aam Aadmi Party in Haryana. Congress feels that if Kurukshetra seat had remained in their account, BJP might have lost from here. However, after the defeat in Kurukshetra, Aam Aadmi Party’s Haryana state senior vice president Anurag Dhanda had made serious allegations against Congress in a press conference. Targeting Congress leaders Randeep Surjewala and Ashok Arora, he suspected them of sabotage. Anurag Dhanda said that some forces tried to kill Aam Aadmi Party in Haryana. Because they felt that if AAP wins in Kurukshetra, there will be a storm in Haryana politics and big political parties will face problems.
Anurag Dhanda argued that Randeep Surjewala is considered a strong leader in Kaithal. He has also been in charge in many states. He had lost by 500-700 votes in the last assembly elections, after that there was so much anti-wave against BJP, despite that how did the alliance lag behind by 17000 votes in Surjewala ji’s area? This is not understandable. The alliance lost even at the booth where Surjewala voted. In such a situation, questions will definitely arise.’ It is clear that Anurag Dhanda’s words have substance.
Actually, the votes of Aam Aadmi Party and Congress are almost the same. Both are confident of Muslim-Dalit and Jat votes. Both are expected to get anti-incumbency votes. This is the reason why there is no benefit in forming an alliance between the two. Along with this, Congress knows that if Aam Aadmi Party wins some seats in the state, then it will be a threat for Congress. Because in the states where Aam Aadmi Party has become strong, Congress has been wiped out. Because Congress voters are shifting to Aam Aadmi Party.
This is the reason why both the parties do not want to contest the elections in alliance with each other. Senior Haryana leader Kumari Selja denies any kind of alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party. Last month, she said in an interview that her party is a strong player in the state and will contest the elections on its own. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has also been saying that the Aam Aadmi Party will contest all the 90 seats in Haryana with its own strength.
Not only this, in Delhi too, the local leaders of both the parties have been continuously opposing the alliance in the Lok Sabha elections, despite this the alliance was decided. But this alliance could not win even a single seat. In Haryana too, despite the opposition of the local units, both the parties formed an alliance. Kurukshetra seat was won by Aam Aadmi Party, but the alliance could not win this seat. It is clear that Aam Aadmi Party and Congress could not achieve anything by forming an alliance. However, Chandigarh seat can be considered an exception. In the Lok Sabha elections, both the parties contested the elections together. Manish Tiwari was the candidate from Congress and also won. In Punjab, the opposition of the local units of both the parties was so much that both the parties were forced to field different candidates. But it was kept in mind that where Aam Aadmi Party had a strong contender, Congress fielded a weak candidate and where Congress had a strong candidate, Aam Aadmi Party fielded a dummy candidate.
4- What is the electoral equation in Haryana
Congress’ performance in Haryana has been good in Lok Sabha elections-2024. It won 5 out of 10 seats. At the same time, AAP was at third place with 3.94 vote share. In the last assembly elections in Haryana, Congress won 31 out of 90 seats. Its vote share was 28.08 percent.
There are 90 seats in the Haryana Assembly. The BJP has 40, Congress 31 and Independents/Others 19. The battle for supremacy is intensifying as all the three major parties (BJP-Congress-Aam Aadmi Party) are aiming to contest all the seats.
Booth-level data shows that in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led in 44 of the 90 assembly constituencies, the Congress in 42 and the Aam Aadmi Party in four. The Congress showed strength in rural and minority-dominated areas. In Ferozepur Jhirka, the Congress won by 98,558 votes. Narrow victories like Kosli’s margin of two votes and Bawani Khera’s margin of 282 votes show that some battles can be decided by small margins, leading to a tough contest. If the Aam Aadmi Party fights separately here, then obviously the Congress can lose these seats too.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)