Last Updated on 05/09/2024 by Arun jain
On Monday, the Venezuelan Prosecutor’s Office issued An arrest warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, the overwhelming winner of the country’s July 28 presidential election. It was the latest escalation by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro campaign To shut down the country’s political opposition and claim victory in a contest he clearly lost. But this latest move is poised to take the ongoing political crisis to a more dangerous stage – possibly its end game.
Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was barred from running in the election, has skillfully built a broad coalition of support for Gonzalez at home and abroad. On August 29, European Union foreign ministers made a point to speak with Gonzalez and reaffirmed that they would not recognize Maduro’s claims of victory. Support to the opposition from Organization of American States And European CouncilAlso the diplomatic spotlight on Maduro’s increasingly violent tactics and lack of electoral transparency has helped leave the country’s democratic space more open than it would otherwise be. Even the United States appears Back-channel negotiations were in place to bring about the transition. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinkens Call and personal of Vice President Kamala Harris letter There were important high-level performances of support for Machado and Gonzalez. On Monday, the United States sent a more direct message and seized Maduro’s presidential plane. Colombia and Brazil are more sympathetic to Maduro is called For announcing election results and communicating with the opposition.
However, these efforts have done little to persuade Maduro to change course and accept a democratic transition. As I have before suggestedThe conflict is in part because outsiders have consistently underestimated the resilience, ruthlessness and adaptability of Maduro’s regime.
Given other crises on the international stage, it may be tempting for international actors to begrudgingly move on from Venezuela and its problems. But that would be a mistake.
The situation in Venezuela is extremely fluid. More than a month after González’s victory, tens of thousands of Venezuelans continue to peacefully protest and defy their government – an escalating crackdown by security forces has led to dozens of deaths, thousands ArrestAnd executed Opposition leaders went into hiding. The Venezuelan people and the opposition continue to send a message to the world: this is the moment for change.
There is little appetite for a return to the failed policies of the so-called Trump administration Maximum pressure. Maduro not only resisted the pressure, but also took it as an opportunity to further consolidate his power within the country. However, even the calibrated approach to the current crisis taken by the international community seems to be running its course. last year Barbados AgreementThe lifting of sanctions, which was supposed to produce democratic elections, failed to stop Maduro from rigging the electoral process and instead gave his regime a renewed lifeline to global oil markets.
Now, Maduro is playing the long game. Most foreign governments are unlikely to sever diplomatic relations with their regime and it is Compressed Political space available to the opposition and its use in Venezuela institutions To legitimize his claims of victory. As the possibility of Gonzalez’s detention grows, the question is what more the United States and others can do as Maduro Pads His government is backed by hardline loyalists and prepares to inaugurate himself as president on January 10.
The following are measures that may already be under consideration in Washington but must become a reality as soon as possible if they are going to have any impact on the rapidly deteriorating situation:
First, Blinken and US National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan should have been personally and clearly warned that there would be dire consequences if Machado or Gonzalez were detained or harmed. That hasn’t happened to date, though Blinken has is called for the “safety and security of the leaders and members of the Democratic Opposition” and an Assistant Secretary to him Condemned Arrest warrant on Monday. But more personal statements, like the one sent by Harris, carry extra weight at a moment of grave threat.
Second, the United States, along with the European Union and other Latin American governments, should call for a United Nations General Assembly session on Venezuela in support of a democratic transition and with the goal of highlighting Venezuela’s plight on the global stage.
Third, when the Treasury Department will imminent The announcement of new sanctions on senior officials in Venezuela’s electoral council, as well as intelligence and security services, is a fact that the United States could accelerate the pace of individual sanctions on a wide range of people responsible for repression and election fraud. Doing so will maximize impact in times of significant uncertainty. History shows that there are restrictions More likely to be effective At times of high stress and in the short term, becomes less effective over time.
Fourth, if Gonzalez is arrested, it may also be time to revoke US licenses for multinational oil corporations doing business with Venezuela. Global oil markets adjust to 2022 energy shock-prices are actually declining—making Venezuela less of a linchpin. For Venezuela, the easing of sanctions has been a boon, with production nearly rising. 735,000 barrels per day From September 2023 is 908,000 In June 2024. At the moment the United States has no reason to help Maduro prop up his economy, and there is little evidence that the lifting of sanctions has slowed significantly. moving out Pursuant to the Barbados Agreement from Venezuela.
Fifth, the US Department of Justice currently appears to be withholding sensitive information from the public, leading to a 2020 $15 million prize For Maduro’s arrest – information that could seriously damage Maduro’s legitimacy domestically and internationally if it reveals ties to issues such as drug trafficking, corruption and terrorism. Already in January, US senators is called For the release of evidence on Maduro’s alleged money launderer, Alex Saabwho was released in December 2023 in a prisoner exchange.
Sixth, and most consequential, the United States, along with other governments, could immediately recognize Gonzalez as the elected president of Venezuela, not just someone who won the election. On August 1, Blinken later admitted, saying“It is clear to the United States and, more importantly, to the people of Venezuela that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election.” Washington hesitates to formally recognize Gonzalez as president-elect: State Department statement The one-month post-election mark, for example, is commonly called for election transparency and respect for the democratic will of the Venezuelan people. The European Union is Also divided how far to go This shell game must end, especially if Gonzalez is detained. The opposition has published About 80 percent of the more than 23,000 polling stations “actas” copies, and it’s abundantly clear that Gonzalez won fair and square.
Some may argue that recognizing Gonzalez would be a repeat of what happened in Venezuela’s National Assembly in 2019. Supported Juan Guaido as interim president in a short-lived challenge to Maduro’s unconstitutional election last year. However, the present time is quite different. What happened in 2019 was about constitutional violations by the Maduro government; This time, it’s about a blatant attempt to steal an election won by an opposition candidate.
Recognizing Gonzalez as president-elect would radically change the current dynamic, emboldening the opposition and the Venezuelan public at a time when growing repression threatens to lose internal momentum.
Beyond democratic aspirations, helping the opposition succeed is important for causes that extend beyond Venezuela’s borders. Mass migration from Venezuela and its status as a hub International Criminality And Terrorism have disturbed regional stability, and with Largest oil reserves In the world, the country is an important part of geoeconomic calculations on energy security for the United States—and for China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran.
We are at a unique point in the history of modern Venezuela, on the line of a democratic transition that, if it fails, will affect us all. The Venezuelan people will need more, not less, support in the coming weeks if they are to have any chance of success.
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