Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and both Deputy CMs have reached Delhi for the meeting. Many important meetings are to be held in Delhi in the next 48 hours. The first meeting of NITI Aayog is on Saturday, the second meeting is of the Chief Ministers and Deputy CMs of BJP ruled states. It is believed that an important meeting can be held between CM Yogi and the top leadership of BJP regarding Uttar Pradesh.
There is also a discussion that CM Yogi may meet RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat who is in Delhi in the next 48 hours. Both UP Deputy CMs Keshav Maurya and Brajesh Pathak did not attend the review meeting of the Chief Minister. Keshav Maurya was not present in the Prayagraj division meeting and Brajesh Pathak was missing in the Lucknow division meeting.
The question is whether both were not called or both kept distance from the review meeting of the Chief Minister. On the other hand, Pallavi Patel, who defeated Keshav Maurya in the elections, had a meeting with CM Yogi Adityanath yesterday. Political meanings are being sought about the timing of the meeting amid discussions of differences with Maurya, the meeting with Pallavi Patel has heated up the market of speculations. Calling CM Yogi along with both the Deputy CMs to Delhi amid internal strife shows that something big is going on inside.
BJP is claiming that everything is fine in the party, but the ground reality seems to be completely different from this claim. First Deputy CM Keshav Maurya’s statement that the organization is bigger than the government in the organization meeting, then the absence of both the Deputy CMs in CM Yogi’s review meeting. This is pointing towards the infighting within the party. If we look at the timing of Akhilesh Yadav’s offer and the conflict within BJP together, the political picture will become clear. This means that everything is not fine within BJP.
Is there a plan to topple the government amid the conflict?
The results of the Lok Sabha elections were declared on 4 June. The results were declared and the discussions about change in UP heated up the political market. Claims started being heard in the political corridors that the blame for the poor performance in UP will fall on some big leader. A statement by Keshav Prasad Maurya fuelled these discussions. And then the internal fight came to the surface. Meanwhile, Akhilesh Yadav entered the fight of the organization versus the government – and he killed two birds with one stone.
Now understand how Akhilesh Yadav, like a seasoned political player, hit two targets with one arrow. Akhilesh Yadav increased the heartbeat of the BJP government in UP by announcing the Monsoon Offer. With his offer, he gave the message that if the dissatisfied MLAs in UP BJP revolt, they can form the government with the support of the Samajwadi Party. This means that if the leaders angry with Yogi want, a coup can take place in UP.
Akhilesh Yadav’s second target was to link BJP’s internal conflict to the narrative of Delhi vs Lucknow, trying to convey the message that a plan to remove CM Yogi has been made in Delhi. Whatever Akhilesh Yadav said is the same thing that is going around in the political corridors of Uttar Pradesh. Samajwadi Party MP Dharmendra Yadav is claiming that there is a solid reason behind the offer made by the party chief.
Akhilesh Yadav gave monsoon offer
Akhilesh Yadav has targeted the BJP government in UP on the pretext of monsoon offer. Now the question is, is what Akhilesh said possible in UP? If 100 BJP MLAs rebel, will Yogi’s government fall? After all, where does Akhilesh Yadav’s offer stand on the test of number game? Let us tell you.
Actually, to understand this, you have to understand the mathematics of UP assembly. Currently, there are 393 MLAs out of total 403 seats in Uttar Pradesh, ten seats are vacant, where by-elections are to be held. The majority figure is 197 while the number of NDA MLAs is 283, in which BJP has 251, Apna Dal has 13, RLD has 8, SBSP has 6, Nishad Party has 5, All India Alliance has a total of 107 MLAs, in which Samajwadi Party has 105 MLAs, Congress has 2 MLAs. While there are three other MLAs. Now the question is whether it is possible for the BJP government to fall in UP. You can understand this from three possibilities.
First possibility- If 100 MLAs rebel against BJP, their membership will be cancelled. The number of MLAs in the House will become 293. The majority figure will become 147. BJP will have 151 MLAs, which means the government will not fall.
The second possibility is that BJP has 251 MLAs. To topple the government, two-thirds of the MLAs should separate from BJP, that is, 168 MLAs should separate. Only then will the membership be saved. Only then will the BJP government fall. The third possibility is that if 110 out of 251 BJP MLAs resign, the number of MLAs in the House will decrease to 283 and the majority figure will become 142.
In such a situation, if all the parties involved in NDA separate and join the All India Alliance, only then will Akhilesh Yadav’s offer be successful. The possibility of which is almost nil.