Camera units were stationed outside a posh hotel in Delhi for three days. Everyone wanted to capture a glimpse of former Jharkhand CM Champai Soren. It was expected that he would have a meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and the top leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, Champai Soren left Delhi without any meeting with the BJP. Or it can also be said that there was no public discussion of any meeting.
When Champai Soren reached his home constituency Saraikela in Jharkhand, the Tiger of Kolhan announced that a new chapter of his life has begun. He said that he will either start his new political party or join hands with someone during this new journey.
A source close to Champai Soren told India Today that the former Jharkhand CM will soon form his own new faction. Top sources said he will start his own faction before the Jharkhand assembly elections. There is no question of Champai returning to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) camp. People close to Champai Soren say that the veteran JMM leader has turned rebel, but he will not break the JMM for his new faction. However, sources say that some JMM leaders are in touch with Champai Soren and leaders like rebel MLA Chamra Linda may become part of the new faction.
Why does BJP want to keep Champai the focus in Kolhan?
Champai Soren is the most senior tribal leader in JMM after party patron Shibu Soren. His stature in JMM can be gauged from the fact that when Hemant Soren decided to step down from the post of Chief Minister of Jharkhand due to ED arrest, Champai Soren was made the Chief Minister in place of his cabinet colleague Joba Majhi.
Made cabinet minister after being removed from the post of CM
After being released from Ranchi jail, Hemant Soren returned to the CM office on July 4. Champai Soren was included in the Jharkhand cabinet as the new education minister, however, this did not go down well with the ‘Tiger of Kolhan’. Now Champai Soren is again saying that he had decided to start a new chapter of his life on July 3 itself. Champai Soren is saying that either he will form his own party soon or he will join hands with ‘a partner’ in the journey to build the Jharkhand of his dreams.
Which step will benefit BJP?
After this decision of Champai Soren, questions are now being raised that what is the better option for BJP in this matter? Inducting the former Chief Minister of Jharkhand into BJP or helping him form a new organization? The clear answer to this is that a new political organization should be formed under the leadership of the rebel leader of JMM and BJP should not form an alliance with the new faction in the 2024 Jharkhand elections.
Raghubar Das had to face defeat
Actually, there are 14 assembly constituencies in Kolhan division. In the 2019 elections, the Mahagathbandhan led by Hemant Soren had defeated the BJP in this division. The saffron party failed to open its account in Kolhan and then CM Raghubar Das had to face defeat at the hands of BJP rebel Saryu Roy.
It was the results of Kolhan that brought victory to JMM!
It was the tribal-dominated Kolhan that ensured JMM’s victory in the 2019 assembly elections. Despite the Modi wave and the Ram Mandir wave, Hemant Soren’s JMM won 11 out of 14 assembly constituencies and two were captured by the Congress. These numbers ensured that JMM recorded its best ever electoral numbers in Jharkhand elections.
Champai Soren’s hold in Kolhan is quite strong
In fact, Champai Soren’s strong hold in the Kolhan region has a long history. He is often referred to as a working class leader who fought for Jharkhand under the leadership of Shibu Soren. He himself is proud of the fact that more than 10 thousand youths from the local villages of this region got jobs in industrial establishments like the Tata Group.
JMM will have to pay the price for this rebellion
If Champai Soren enters the 2024 electoral fray alone, the BJP is expected to gain more. With limited resources, the former Jharkhand CM will focus himself on the assembly seats of the Kolhan division. While it is expected that Champai Soren may be able to retain the Saraikela assembly constituency. He may win at least one more assembly constituency for his new organization, which will cost the JMM.
Equation can be made like JDU and LJP
Champai Soren may do something similar to Chirag Paswan’s LJP (R) with the Janata Dal United (JDU) in Bihar in 2021. LJP had contested the elections alone, but its candidates were believed to have made a dent in the JDU vote bank. Although Chirag Paswan’s party won only one seat, it played a key role in JDU’s defeat in several assembly seats.
Champai’s rebellion will reduce JMM’s vote share
Similarly, if Champai Soren’s candidates are able to secure even 5000 votes each in the tribal-dominated Kolhan constituencies, it could prove disastrous for the JMM and the INDIA Alliance. According to the data, this will reduce the vote share of the JMM in these constituencies and create an opportunity for the BJP to win.
Why is Hemant’s JMM not afraid of rebellion?
Efforts to reconcile with JMM are also not looking easy. Champai Soren himself has confirmed this. While leaving Delhi, Champai Soren had said that none of the top leadership of JMM, including Hemant Soren and Supriyo Bhattacharya, contacted him. On paper, Champai’s strategy seems fatal for JMM, but Hemant Soren’s party is not in a position to panic. JMM insiders said that their top leadership has adopted a ‘wait and watch policy’. JMM’s confidence may also stem from the history of such rebels in Jharkhand politics.
I am not getting tensed seeing the fate of the old rebels
A senior JMM MP told India Today, “It remains to be seen what happens to rebels in state politics. What happened to Sita Soren? She left the JMM and faced defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. Geeta Koda joined the BJP and lost the Lok Sabha elections to Joba Majhi.” He stressed that Babulal Marandi, who is now the president of the Jharkhand BJP, is himself the best example of how rebel groups have failed to make a mark.
One problem of JMM has also been resolved now
The JMM is also confident because it believes that Hemant Soren’s popularity is at its peak at this time. With the arrival of Kalpana Soren, the JMM’s problem of having only one star campaigner has also been resolved. They believe that Champai Soren’s early exit will ensure that the impact of his rebellion is reduced by the time elections are held at the end of the year.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)