After the announcement of assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years, political activities have intensified. The political atmosphere which was cold for the last six years has now started to show movement, which was seen to some extent during the Lok Sabha elections held some time ago. The special thing about the assembly elections to be held here is that it is being held after the historic changes that have taken place in Jammu and Kashmir in the last five years. Article 370 was abolished on 5 August 2019. After this, Jammu and Kashmir was given the status of a Union Territory. Also, it was divided from Ladakh and made a separate Union Territory.
Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have always been different from the rest of the country. There have been many unusual factors that have affected the electoral process. The most prominent among these is the security situation during the elections. Security reasons had affected people’s participation in previous elections. However, the record turnout in the recent Lok Sabha elections has raised hopes that similar enthusiasm will be seen in the assembly elections as well.
As Jammu and Kashmir heads towards a historic electoral battle, apart from focusing on the key political players, it is important to identify the possibilities of pre-poll alliances and the key issues around which the elections will be fought.
Will the National Conference (NC) and BJP emerge as the largest parties in Kashmir and Jammu?
In the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, NC won two out of three seats in Kashmir, while BJP retained both seats in Jammu. Now the question is whether the same voting pattern will be seen in the assembly elections as well? If we look at the Lok Sabha election data constituency-wise, NC won 34 out of 90 assembly constituencies, while BJP managed to win 29 seats in Jammu. Both parties seem confident of repeating their Lok Sabha performance in the assembly elections as well.
Can NC and Congress’ pre-poll alliance be a game changer?
According to sources, at least two rounds of meetings have taken place between NC and Congress. Its purpose was to decide the strategy of alliance and seat-sharing between the two parties before the elections. This agreement between the two parties can be about those assembly constituencies where there is a possibility of a tough fight. For example, NC will support Congress candidates in Jammu, while Congress will support NC in Kashmir. Both the parties were in a similar alliance during the Lok Sabha elections. National Conference is also a partner in ‘INDIA Block’.
Will Article 370 become the biggest election issue for regional parties?
The National Conference has made it clear with its election manifesto that it will center its election campaign around the removal of Article 370. Restoration of special status to Jammu and Kashmir tops the list of National Conference’s election promises. It is clear that regional parties still consider this issue to be linked to the sentiments of the people. So instead of development issues like roads, electricity, water, the fight for the return of special status may resonate more among the public.
BJP’s course correction
When allies failed in the Valley, will the party now contest elections alone in both Jammu and Kashmir? BJP is working hard to increase its influence in the Kashmir Valley. While Jammu has been a strong bastion of the BJP. But Kashmir has always been the weak link of the BJP. In the last five years, the party has spent a lot of time to strengthen its cadre and organizational structure in the Valley. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party did not field candidates in all three parliamentary seats of the Valley, which sends a clear message that the party’s position in Kashmir has not changed much.
Apart from this, BJP’s efforts to form an alliance with its own party and allies like People’s Conference have also failed. The reason is that both these parties could not do anything special in the Lok Sabha elections and are currently facing internal rebellion and revolt. In view of these circumstances, BJP has now decided to contest the elections alone in Jammu and Kashmir. It will be interesting to see whether the party fields candidates in Kashmir or, like the Lok Sabha elections, it will not field any candidate in the valley this time too.
All these factors together indicate that there is a possibility of a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, where no party will be able to form the government alone. Any party will need an alliance to come to power. It will also be very interesting that the party that performs well in Jammu will have to come together with the best performing party in Kashmir so that a stable government can be formed here.
Source (PTI) (NDTV) (HINDUSTANTIMES)