An American University historian who has correctly predicted the results of nine of the last ten presidential elections tells Fox News Digital that Democrats “finally got smart” by rallying around Kamala Harris as his candidate — and that’s one reason he thinks she’ll be November’s winner.
Alan Lichtman has used a formula to correctly predict nearly every presidential race since 1984, his “Keys to the White House” developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and based on his analysis of the 1860 presidential election. The “key” consists of 13 true or false questions, which parameters, if true, favor stability.
“The way it works is really simple. If six or more keys — any six — go against the White House party, they’re predicted to lose. Otherwise, they’re predicting winners,” Lichtman said this week. told Fox News Digital “And by the way, this was predicted of Donald Trump Jeet, which made me virtually alone in making that prediction in 2016.”
Lichtman says the Democrats represented by Harris could lose “at most” five keys, and that’s why he’s predicting “we’re going to have a runoff election and Kamala Harris will be the first woman president of the United States.”
“We’ve had the unprecedented situation of leaving the meeting on the eve of the convention, and it’s affected my keys,” Lichtman continued. “Now, with Biden leaving, Democrats have lost a key — a key to power. I thought maybe the way things were looking, if Biden were to drop out [Democrats] There will be a big fight in the party and it will cost him another key, due to which he may lose the election. But the Democrats eventually smartened up and Combined behind Harris And it holds the key to competition. That means it only costs them one key per shift.”
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Lichtman Describes the competition key “There is no serious contest for the position-party nomination.” Other keys are: party mandate, power, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
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“I think putting Harris front and center, rather than Joe Biden, the policymaker, has dampened the spirit of the opposition which helped protect the other key, the key to social unrest,” Lichtman also said. “Keys show Kamala Harris is the presumptive winner.”
Fox News’ Chris Pandolfo contributed to this report.
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