A massive landslide triggered by torrential rains in Wayanad, Kerala has caused massive destruction, claiming hundreds of lives. This tragic incident has raised questions about the accuracy of weather forecasts made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Aaj Tak checked the accuracy of various forecasts made by IMD. It was revealed that the department usually gives the weather forecast for the next 5 days. Along with this, daily forecast and hourly updates are also shared by IMD. Generally, the shorter the forecast period, the more accurate it is.
IMD had issued a red alert on the night of 29 July
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The IMD had issued a red alert for Kerala around 11:30 pm on July 29, accurately predicting heavy rainfall around midnight, which speaks of the IMD’s ability to provide short-term weather forecasts. A few days before the landslide, the IMD had issued an orange alert for Kerala in its daily bulletins on Sunday and Monday afternoon, indicating the possibility of heavy rainfall. When Aaj Tak checked these bulletins, it found that the IMD had indeed predicted severe weather conditions.
Long-term forecasts must also be accurate
These findings highlight IMD’s ability to provide accurate forecasts, which are crucial for immediate disaster response. However, the horrific tragedy in Wayanad emphasises the need for accurate long-term forecasts of such events as well. Issuing alerts well in advance of such events gives agencies and local authorities time to take necessary measures. This can potentially save many lives and reduce losses during natural disasters.
Short-term forecasts are fairly accurate
Although the IMD has been fairly accurate in its short-range forecasts, the Wayanad incident highlights the need to improve long-range forecasting capabilities. Accurate long-range forecasts can provide crucial time for disaster preparation, which can save people from the devastating effects of weather.