Last Updated on 06/09/2024 by Arun jain
Former President Donald Trump has increased his chances of defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in an update to Nate Silver’s election prediction model.
Earlier, the said the model That Trump had a 52.4% chance of beating Harris, but updated assessments from Wednesday cut her chances to 41.6%. That puts Trump’s chance of beating Harris at an astonishing 58.3%.
‘They haven’t really got another gear since Hot Brat Summer.’
The model calculates that Trump will win 274.7 electoral votes while Harris will get only 263.3. To win an election, a candidate must win a majority of electoral votes or more than 270.
Silver explained that new polls from swing states did not help the Harris campaign because the model was set against partisan-sponsored polls that showed the two candidates in a tie.
“Our polling average applies a relatively harsh ‘house effects’ adjustment to partisan-sponsored elections, so it interprets ties as losing in partisan elections. And PA/MI/WI polls are really important to forecasting,” Silver wrote.
He said Harris had fell Her lead in Pennsylvania is 1.8% to just 1%.
“In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become an issue for Harris. National elections and polls in other swing states [are] Mostly correct for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts the model a lot,” he said Explained.
He went ahead say That some of Harris’s weakness comes from hiring several Biden people in his campaign.
“There was a surge of enthusiasm for the Harris post-Biden dropout, but whatever happened. Thought conference speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro [is] Starting to look bad and they haven’t really got another gear after the hot brat summer,” he added.
Silver also had a tip on how to improve Harris’ chances of winning.
“If I were a rich D donor and wanted to increase Kamala’s chances of winning, I would pay a $10M bounty to keep ex-Biden senior staffers off the campaign and replace them with new/better ones. Give him a nice job advising on Luxembourg parliamentary elections etc Tweeted.
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