Last Updated on 14/09/2024 by Arun jain
Vladimir Putin was clear when asked about this British-made Storm Shadows likely to strike Russia.
“This will significantly change the nature of the conflict,” the Russian president told state television. “It would mean that NATO countries are at war with Russia.”
His comments came as Joe Biden was reportedly on the verge of lifting restrictions on the use of US targeting systems needed to fire Storm Shadows.
If Mr. Putin’s warning needed any interpretation, the Kremlin-friendly Kommersant newspaper nailed it with a headline: “Vladimir Putin Draws His Red Line.”
Such words often seem to send a chill down the spine of Western policy-makers. Putin, we are reminded, has an arsenal of nuclear weapons and a growing propensity for sabotage within Europe.
Washington, in particular, fears escalation. Even as Mr. Biden was about to authorize Storm Shadow strikes inside Russia, he was Reportedly resisting pressure to use the US equivalent missile, the ATACMS, for the same purpose..
It is not the first time that Britain has taken the lead in terms of driving new arms donations to Kiev.
It took Ben Wallace, former Defense Secretary, Agreeing to send Challenger 2 tanks before Washington agreed to send its own Abrams war machines to Kiev.
The sources also claimed that Mr Wallace’s hopes of becoming NATO secretary general were dashed by the White House after he moved without US permission to announce Storm Shadow and F-16 donation to Ukraine.
The Biden administration eventually agreed to donate each of those capabilities, but not after expressing fears that they could escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.
A Western official told The Telegraph that Kremlin threats about the possibility of war between Russia and NATO are exaggerated.
That is because European governments largely believe that Putin himself believes that they are already engaged in a major conflict, perhaps on the same scale as the one fought between 1914 and 1945.
One source said the Russian president is not interested in escalating the conflict upwards toward nuclear war but has visions of what he described as “horizontal escalation.”
These include hybrid attacks, such as recruiting agents to burn down commercial properties linked to Ukrainian support or attacking railway infrastructure carrying military aid east to Kiev.
“It’s not just nuclear escalation that we need to keep in mind,” one official told The Telegraph.
“This is Putin’s way of bringing war to the West, as he has done by invading Ukraine. [the Russian region of] Kursk.”
Analysts note that Putin’s red lines are often crossed — and not often in the way of revenge.
In his address to announce the start of his “special military operation”, the Russian president said there would be “more consequences than you have faced in history” if the West joined the war.
This was seen as a clear reference to a select group of NATO allies already arming Ukraine to push back against an impending invasion.
Similar threats were made when Britain was considering sending Storm Shadows, a long-range air-launched cruise missile with a range of about 190 miles, as an alternative to the donation.
Smaller less strategic weapons, such as US-made Hummers rocket launchers, main battle tanks and F-16 fighter jets were met with similar reactions from Moscow.
“If NATO countries continue to supply weapons that allow strikes deep into Russian territory, they risk a major escalation that could involve NATO directly,” Putin said in February of this year.
To date, there have been no direct conflicts between NATO’s 32 allies and Moscow.
Justin Crump, chief executive of strategic intelligence company Sibylline, said Putin resorts to such threats as a last resort to prevent Ukraine from providing better weapons systems.
While Hummers, tanks and long-range missiles have not proven to be game-changing assets, Moscow’s forces in Ukraine have often struggled to adapt to the new capabilities being introduced to the battlefield.
Himmers was credited with a major Ukrainian counter-offensive in the previously occupied territories of Kherson and Kharkiv.
Storm Shadow, and more recently ATACMS, have significantly weakened the Kremlin’s grip on Crimea, a peninsula illegally seized by Moscow in 2014.
“The Russian talk of a red line is nothing new,” Mr. Crump said. We have been here many times since the beginning of the conflict. The Kremlin’s rhetoric is aimed at slowing Western support, undermining the cohesion of our collective leadership, and turning the population against supporting Ukraine.
He added: “The UK is particularly unique in Russian threats because it has often played a leading role in the supply of capabilities, creating a trail for others to follow, as may be the case today.”
Mr. Crump said there were clear examples where Putin or his allies threatened retaliation, but failed to act on the ultimatums.
This included a significant Storm Shadow strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea. The attack, in which several senior personnel were said to have been killed, was not found to represent a real advance on NATO, or on Britain and France, which provided the weapons and knew how to carry out the strike.
Even permission to use Storm Shadows is not viewed as seriously within the Kremlin as Putin makes it out to be. The long delay between the suggestion it could be used inside Russian territory and the actual green light has allowed Russia to move several key assets — such as jets used to fire damaging glide-bombs against Ukrainian troops — out of range.
Many analysts believe that it is not in Putin’s interest to make good on his threats against the West. Its forces are already deployed in Ukraine. If he could, Putin would settle for a formal peace agreement that would allow him to keep territories Russia has already occupied — something that might be possible if Donald Trump, for example, enters the White House.
Waiting to see who wins the US election in November would appear to be a wiser strategic choice at this point, compared to launching direct strikes against weapons depots in Poland and thus invoking NATO’s Article 5.
This “red line”, in other words, may not be so red after all.
Post Putin has always threatened war with NATO appeared first The Telegraph.