Last Updated on 06/09/2024 by Arun jain
Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat the former President Donald Trump This November, the historian says he has successfully predicted 9 out of 10 presidential elections since 1984.
“Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States, at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race,” Alan LichtmanAmerican University’s presidential historian told The New York Times in a video interview that aired Thursday.
Lichtman, whose “Keys to the White House” prediction model consists of 13 true-false questions, said in an interview that eight of the keys favored Harris.
Trump, Lichtman said, had three keys — one, Harris is not an incumbent; Two, Harris is not, in his view, “a once-in-a-generation, broadly inspirational candidate”; And three, the Democratic Party loses control of the House during the midterm elections in 2022.
But it was outnumbered by eight other keys.
Besides benefiting from positive short- and long-term economic conditions as well as legislative achievements under President Joe Biden’s administration, Harris’ candidacy was not affected by any scandals or ongoing social unrest, Lichtman said.
Additionally, Harris does not need to go through a primary contest to succeed Biden as the nominee, he added. Lichtman said it helps that she’s facing off against Trump, who “only appeals to a narrow base.”
Harris, he said, hasn’t even had a third-party challenger since Robert F. Kennedy Jr Suspended his campaign last month.
The last two keys — on foreign policy failures and successes — don’t matter as much because Trump would still only have five keys, even if they were against Harris, Lichtman said.
Lichtman’s assessment shows little change from that The last prediction In July, he told the Wall Street Journal that the Democratic Party should stick with Biden if he wants to keep the White House.
“Biden’s running checks two keys to the right. Biden steps aside, they obviously lose power and it’s not at all clear that there won’t be a major party fight,” he said later.
Although Biden eventually dropped out, Harris was able to avoid a primary contest. In addition to gaining Biden’s endorsement, Harris was able to rally his party around him in short order.
To be sure, Lichtman’s predictions aren’t always on the money. He falsified the 2000 election when he defeated eventual contender George W. Bush instead predicted an Al Gore victory.
The 1984 election marks the only election result Lichtman has gotten wrong since he began making predictions.
Harris campaign representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment sent outside regular business hours.
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